Promar Blog

LATIN AMERICA � MORE, MORE, MORE EXPORTS

Thu, 20 Jun 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Fruit exports from Latin America have been booming over the last 10 years. This looks set to grow in the future, with overall volumes from a cross section of countries, including Chile, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Argentina, having increased (across all horticultural categories), and to all markets, from some 45.7 million tonnes to under 82 million tonnes. This represents almost a doubling the total volume of exports in just a 10 year period.

And while all international markets have seen their imports from these Latin American suppliers increase, the growth in some international markets has been especially impressive. Exports to Asian markets have increased by some 173% over this 10 year period, to Australasian markets exports have increased by some 156% and to Africa, the increase in Latin American trade has been a staggering 2,500% but from of course a low base. Exports to the EU from Latin America have increased by around 75% and to the US by 90% and to the Middle East just under 70%. Regional trade to other neighbouring Latin American countries has increased by some 30%.

The general wisdom these days is that the real growth in exports will come from fast emerging markets, especially in Asia. While it is true that exports from Latin America have increased to Asian markets from 2 million tonnes to over 5 million per annum, the reality is that regions such as the EU and North America still account for 32% and 45% of overall exports. Interestingly, these proportions have remained relatively unchanged over the last 10 years. Latin American exports to neighbouring markets account for 12% of exports, the Middle East is still less than 2%, Asia around 7% and Africa and Australasia less than 1 % of overall exports. The EU, US and Asia are clearly the big opportunity areas for the forthcoming period, but interest in non traditional markets, not least in Africa, cannot be ruled out either for future opportunities.

So for all the talk of the future for international fruit suppliers (and not just in Latin America) – being in the emerging markets, the real picture is somewhat different. EU and US markets are still of critical overall importance to Latin America and will continue to be so in the future. While it is only right that new opportunities are sought out in the emerging economies (and Latin America has been as successful here as anyone), there is danger in that by switching commercial, technical and promotional attention to these markets too quickly and too exclusively, that hard won markets in more mature economies are neglected.

This would be a mistake and there is a clear need to adopt a well defined portfolio approach to international markets based on the maxim of “how much we want these respective markets” and just as importantly, “how much they really want us”, and adopting a strategy of “maintain, build, invest or lastly, treat as opportunistic only”.

This can only be achieved by examining and researching key opportunities and developing a high level of economic, political, social and market understanding. With new market opportunities opening up around the world all the time, only investment in this type of analysis can see growers and exporters pick the right markets at the right time and this maybe is the greatest challenge of all for the Latin American fruit supply chain.

John Giles – Divisional Director

A POST CARD FROM ROME � Part II

Thu, 13 Jun 2013 00:00:00 +0100

A few weeks ago, I was asked to speak at the “FoodNews” Tomato Forum in Rome.

As often the case, a big part of the pleasure of being at this sort of event is to also listen to what other fellow and invariably excellent speakers have to say and a number of things struck me – and these included:

• Every industry sees itself as unique and with its own challenges – but this conference proved to me (again maybe) that many of the issues facing the processed tomato sector are not uncommon to what we see in other sectors of the agri food supply chain

• Global production is now in effect concentrated in 3 key areas of the world – the Americas, the EU and China

• While China is still the main low cost producer, costs of production are on the up. This is often due mainly to the relationship between the US$ and RMB

• The US has become much more involved in international markets over the last 5 years, with exports booming to Africa and the Middle East, in particular

• That despite receiving an annual subsidy of some €330 million per annum via the CAP paid to growers, many still find it hard to make ends meet, and the way that the CAP has operated has often appeared to support the weakest and not reward the most efficient

• The protection that growers in Europe have received has often done them no real favours in terms of preparing them to compete in global and more liberalised markets, especially the way that quotas have been operated in the past. EU production since de coupling (after an initial surge) has seen ongoing falls in volume

• Growth in the EU market is still difficult to achieve and the challenge for processors in Italy, Greece and Spain is to look for new opportunities in the emerging markets, but this is often easier said than done and within the EU market there is a need to look for areas of higher added value

• There is a huge amount of attention, and quite rightly so, on opportunities in the likes of Russia, Asia and Latin America, but there are also good opportunities in areas of the world such as North and West Africa – markets are now truly global

• There is a need for more integrated supply chains in terms of farming, processing, marketing and selling. Portugal has emerged as the only growth country in the EU. It has seen significant rationalisation of its production and processing sectors and with a limited domestic market, has based its success on gaining business in the export sector

• Areas such as food safety, good environmental practice and sustainability are no longer “nice to have” but are now “must have” attributes of successful suppliers

And there was much, much more of course. For anyone active in the processed tomato sector, this is a “must attend” event. It also seemed to me, as I wound my way back to the airport, that there was much to learn for other agri food sectors too and some really important transferrable lessons about how we compete in international markets in the future and what we need to do to make this work and take advantage of the clear market opportunities that exist around the world.

And no post card of course would be complete without a word on the weather - sunny spells and warm evenings, but with rain on the morning of the second day ! And Rome starting to fill up with tourists from all over the world for the summer months.

Arrivederci, Roma !

John Giles – Divisional Director

Leaders Born or Made

Thu, 06 Jun 2013 00:00:00 +0100

This is the most basic and most often-asked question about leadership.

To cut to the chase, the answer is: ‘mostly made.' The best estimates offered by research is that leadership is about one-third born and two-thirds made. The job of leading an organisation, a military unit, or a nation, and doing so effectively, is fantastically complex. To expect that a person would be born with all of the tools needed to lead just doesn't make sense based on what we know about the complexity of social groups and processes.

The fact that leadership is mostly made is good news for those of us who believe that learning and training can make a difference - leaders can indeed be developed. OK, there is some "raw material," some inborn characteristics, that predispose people to be and become leaders but from wherever we start we know that improvement can be built.

Fortunately, there is tremendous interest in leadership and in leader development, and there has lately been a strong emphasis on the importance of self-development for leaders in farming and food industries. Leadership training, commonly associated with large corporate businesses, is often difficult for rural business managers to access. Rurally based and family businesses face special challenges and tight budgets, which can limit the uptake of this type of training. However leadership, vision and strategic planning are equally important for farming and primary food processing businesses as they are for major retailers and corporate organisations they supply. Competent and motivated managers, collaborative working, innovation and knowledge transfer between enterprises are vital to the future success of the land based sector and rural economy.

The Business Leaders Programme we have launched has been designed to overcome these challenges. The courses are short, focussed and address the core elements of leadership. To read our course prospectus please click here.

If you would like further information please contact Neil Adams. Neil.adams@genusplc.com tel: 07866363123

Neil Adams – Principal Consultant

A POST CARD FROM ROME � Part I

Thu, 30 May 2013 00:00:00 +0100

A few weeks ago, I was asked to speak at the “FoodNews” Tomato Forum in Rome – this is held every other year and sees some 250 high level delegates attend from around Europe, North & Latin America, the Middle East and Asia over a well designed programme of speakers over a 2 day period.

I was speaking on opportunities in emerging markets – namely Russia, Brazil, India and the Middle East. The main points I tried to get across included that these markets are characterised by strong economic growth at the macro level and rising consumer incomes, yet the retail sector is still often “unorganised” – and while growing rapidly, the presence of Western retailers is still relatively modest.

Demand is often concentrated geographically and by key income groups. We all know by now that these emerging markets will see populations carry on increasing, but it’s not just the sheer number of consumers there that counts – it’s how wealthy they will be. While there will be some very wealthy consumers, the sheer inequality of consumer wealth for many is still also a fact of life too.

At the Point of Sale, both the food service sector and retail are poised for future growth, but at the retail level, discounters and hypermarkets are often the dominant form of selling to consumers. Convenience and private labels are on the up and promotions work well, but are often not that sophisticated compared to what we might see in Western Europe, as an example. And doing business in these markets is often difficult, with often huge challenges in terms of the sheer physical distances involved and variable infrastructure.

Import growth rates can at times be deceiving, and while Russia and the KSA consistently import the most volume, in the mid to long term, Brazil and India probably want to export, not import tomato products. Food habits are changing fast. This will present new opportunities for international processors and exporters. The ultimate challenge here will be to bite the bullet and go “on shore” - not just trade with these markets. There is a need to build relationships across the full supply chain, with the mantra for these companies as they look to build their business in emerging markets to “start small, act fast, think big”.

Read part II of the postcard next week to find out what others at the conference had to say, and the common issues facing the agri food supply chain.

John Giles – Divisional Director

Decision making and biases, could you make better decisions on your farm? � Part II

Thu, 23 May 2013 00:00:00 +0100

In my previous blog we considered observation biases or biases which lead you to make decisions based on inferior or incomplete information. However, biases also arise when you are using the information gathered to make predictions that your decisions will hinge on.

It is not uncommon to assess potential outcomes as being either good or bad. However, in most situations there is a full range of outcomes likely, each with different likelihoods of occurring. If you only consider a good outcome versus a bad outcome, neglecting numerous possible intermediate outcomes, this will lead to bias. One way to avoid this is as follows.

1. List the 5 (or more) most likely outcomes. For example on a five point scale, 5 could be excellent and 1 could be disastrous with 3 being average.

2. Now estimate percentage likelihoods for each outcome and reassess.

If the likelihood of outcome 1 (very bad) is 5% or 30%, it will obviously make a big difference. If however outcome 2,3 and 4 sum up to 90% and 1 and 5 are 5 % each then 90% of the time you will have a reasonable or fairly good year. Compare this to a simpler good versus bad analysis.

As the very good and the very bad outcome are both 5%, taking a good versus bad approach would probably lead to a gross over estimation of the likelihood of a bad or very good outcome, with each estimation more likely to be closer to 50% for outcome 1 and 5 than the true probability of 5%. This could lead to highly biased decisions based unduly on extreme outcomes.

Looking at the probabilities of outcomes may also highlight another bias, the notion that good follows bad. A bad year does not reduce the probability of a bad year the next. Likewise a tendency to continue with an underperforming investment in an effort to recoup losses "when your luck turns around" should also be guarded against.

Many of the biases covered in this blog are a result of being overly optimistic or accepting of your current knowledge of a situation and the likelihood of various outcomes. Alternatively if you have had a bad run of things your outlook can become negative. You are more likely to accept a low price for stock or pass good opportunities if your outlook is negative and overly cautious. Being aware of your outlook and likely biases arising from it is the first step in preventing poor decisions.

There are of course many other biases prevalent in agriculture today and identifying them is not inherently difficult in of itself. The main hurdle is that most people are not in the habit of self analysis or actively trying to correct observed biases and flaws.

In summary, identify your biases, be aware of them and correct for them where possible. Keeping records or making an effort to commit more information to memory can help in this regard. It may be also be beneficial to record specific goals for short and long term as your biases may well be a symptom of conflicting goals.

If you are not fully aware of conflicting goals and are unsure of your main goals then you more likely to make poor and uncoordinated decisions.

If you attempt to tackle your biases and do not make enough headway, try asking an experienced farmer or consultant for ideas and suggestions. The best farmers will be doing this already, though maybe not consciously. A relatively small investment of time and effort should lead to improved decision making and better outcomes.

Niall O’Leary

Decision making and biases, could you make better decisions on your farm? � Part I

Thu, 16 May 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Nobody gets it right all the time, and making the right decision doesn't always guarantee the best outcome. The key to general success is getting decisions right as often as possible, leading to the most positive outcomes over time. One of the major obstacles to doing this is bias. If you make the right decision every time, an unfavourable outcome will only occur due to chance, however if you are consistently getting bad outcomes or chronic sub optimal performance it is likely your decisions are being affected by bias.

As farmers make many more decisions than the average person, it is important to identify biases, correct for them and limit bad outcomes. Common biases in farming include "the halo effect", sample size effect, selective memory and "imperfect learning". The following is a summary of these common issues with examples of how farmers could be lead astray and methods of counteracting them.

The halo effect is the presumption that if something has one good characteristic then it's other attributes are also good. A new sward with an exceptional yield cannot be safely assumed to be of a high nutritional value. In fact it may be the case there is a significant trade off. Similarly, use of a new product at the same time as an increase in performance or yield can't always safely be assumed to be a cause and effect relationship.

In systems as complex as agriculture there are any number of factors which could have caused all or part of the improvement, higher milk yields may not be because of the new compound, but perhaps improved staff techniques, changing seasons and healthier cows. Common sense should play a part here and you should attempt to recreate good outcomes, just don’t be too hasty in assuming the most obvious answer is the correct one.

Closely related to this bias is sample size effect, drawing conclusions from a small number of events. This may be particularly relevant when trialling new methodologies or systems. Exceptional performance for a system in the first year is not a sound basis for assuming the second year will be the same.

The anchoring effect is how subtly different introductory information can lead to very different interpretations. Consider asking someone to value identical plots of land and stating that

• 3 years ago it sold for £100,000
or
• 4 years ago it sold for £90,000

Both options are likely to generate very different estimates. The delivery or "framing effect" relates to how the assessment of the quality of the information may often be prejudiced depending on who is conveying it. Are you more likely to trust a nicely presented glossy magazine format or a plain email?

Imperfect learning is not maximising insight from available information. Different people learn better from different types of learning, be it visual, practical or book based and it can be beneficial to asses one's own strengths and weaknesses. If for example you visit a farm which uses a particular nutrient application programme, achieves a great crop that you see before your eyes, provides you with the details of the program and yields you are a lot more likely to remember those details than if you read the same information in an agricultural journal.

Selective perception or remembering what suits you is another common bias. Remembering the good years and not the bad or average years will obviously impact budgeting and planning accuracy. If you really enjoy working with young stock then you may be inclined to overestimate previous profits from rearing young stock and underestimate past performance of other potentially more profitable enterprises to which you could devote your energies. (Doing what you enjoy is important, just don’t mislead yourself about how profitable it is).

It is often easier to make guesses or base decisions on information easy to hand. Recent events and acquired knowledge will also be more prominent when weighing up a decision. Keeping records to which you add new information and unusual events and outcomes will help keep medium to long term past performance in mind when planning for the future.

Finally someone may not have any reason for bias but their methods of measuring or recording could be flawed. Calibrating and testing the accuracy of your visual estimates of animal weights and DM of a field of pasture may highlight inaccuracies in which can then be corrected for. Consistently overestimating or underestimating can cumulatively become very significant. This is not a once off issue and should be revisited at regular intervals.

All of the biases discussed so far are observation biases or biases which lead you to make decisions based on inferior or incomplete information. Biases also arise when you are using the information gathered to make predictions that your decisions will hinge on.

Read part II of this blog next week to find out more...

Niall O’Leary

Are you planning for sustainable intensification?

Thu, 02 May 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Last week I attended a Defra workshop that brought together the food and farming industry, academia and trade organisations on the Sustainable Intensification of the UK agricultural sector.

Defra is looking to establish a research and development programme that can respond to the technical challenge of supporting UK farmers to sustainably intensify operations. This means increasing food production while simultaneously reducing environmental impacts and enhancing the wide range of connected services (pollination, recreation, tourism or flood alleviation) that society needs from land.

Why should this be important to your business? The predicted 70% increase in global food demand by 2050 due to population growth and changes in consumption patterns, takes place in the context of increasing pressure on water, land, energy, and changing climatic conditions. These drivers are already impacting on your businesses now – for example, increasing energy and gas prices are impacting on feed and fertiliser costs. It is therefore essential UK farmers can remain competitive in a national, and increasingly, global economy.

A key question in my mind is the extent to which farmers feel they are already responding to this challenge, or whether the supply chain is driving the intensification agenda? Are you planning for growth and can you balance environmental / resource inputs alongside increasing production? I think it’s possible, the economy will have a strong bearing on confidence to do so but I would be interested to know your views.

Promar is looking to engage strongly in this Defra led initiative – foremost in my mind is that we represent and involve UK farmers and the supply chain. Ultimately, the fruits of this initiative need to feed new innovations and technological developments down to farm businesses in order that your business can remain competitive as well as environmentally sound in the long term.

If you would like to discuss Promar’s input into this workshop and how we intend to progress further ideas, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Tom Gill - Senior Environmental Consultant

Variety is the spice of life

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 00:00:00 +0100

One of the great things about working with Promar's agri-food team is the huge variety of project work that we complete. From one project to the next, our work can vary from undertaking a feasibility study of a small scale abattoir in the UK, to looking at the market opportunity for a new fruit variety across 10 or more global markets.

Unlike some consultancies which apply a standard formula to their projects, each project we complete has its own bespoke method and approach to ensure we meet the client's brief and specific objectives. Although our methods vary from project to project, we aim to provide the same high quality thinking and analysis to all the projects we undertake.

After completing a project for a UK based client recently, we received the following feedback that suggests we continue to meet our customer’s needs through high quality analysis and thinking.

"Thanks to your team at Promar also for pulling together an excellent report that concisely sets out some complex thinking and number crunching in an elegant style."

If you have complex or challenging agri-food related issue then please contact our agri-food team to see how we can help you identify an optimum solution.

Andrew McLay – Senior Consultant (Agri-food)

IT�S NOT JUST ABOUT CHESHIRE, CUMBRIA AND CORNWALL ANYMORE.....

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 00:00:00 +0100

It always amazes me how much information is out there on the global dairy sector – if you know where to look for it, of course! As an example, a recent Rabobank report considered the global dairy industry in Q1 2013 which produced a number of key points which can be summarised below as being:

• Demand for dairy products will remain weak in the EU and US, with both not likely to see any significant increase in dairy consumption during the first half of 2013

• Global dairy importers continue to search for product as a result of a surge in Chinese buying

• The end of the Southern Hemisphere season has been poor – further hindered by drought conditions in New Zealand. This will result in total milk production across key export regions in the first half of 2013 falling below previous year levels

• Lower milk production will reduce international supply availability. Chinese buying will begin to slow in the coming months as other import regions look for additional supplies to top up local market requirements

Along with this, the latest IFCN report details that global milk production growth in 2012 was 2.4% compared to 3% in the previous year. Results show a further slowdown in growth for 2013 of 2% up to February. Problems within the sector are set to widen the gap between demand and supply, which in turn will increase milk prices.

Why should we be interested in this at all? It seems to me that more than ever, events in the UK and wider EU dairy sector are being shaped by what is happening in other parts of the world. As a colleague said to me the other day – “the UK milk price will be determined by events in China just as much if not more than those in Cheshire, Cornwall or Cumbria”. And she is right!

Being on top of what is going on around the world is time consuming and can be confusing at times too. But this is just one of the things we do within our agri food team here at Promar International on a systematic and regular basis for our clients both in the UK, and further afield too, in the US and Southern Hemisphere. Why don’t you contact me to see how we can help – john.giles@genusplc.com

John Giles – Divisional Director, Agri Food

Are you secure in your water supply?

Thu, 11 Apr 2013 00:00:00 +0100

The last 12 months have thrown up the most inclement weather we have experienced for many a year. March 2013 was the second coldest on record, equalling 1947, and only just beaten by 1962 (Met Office stats). If you recall this time last year, it was warm, dry and there was huge concern about the lack of rain to support the coming harvest. This followed a 12 – 18 month period (back to early 2011) of limited rainfall, particularly in the East of England, South Midlands and the South East. This time last year I was working on a project for the Environment Agency as a direct result of these impacts. I was looking at how to manage water resources in drought conditions and the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture (you can find these reports on our publications page). But there was a sting in the tail.... we all know what happened next.... it rained, and rained, and rained some more....

So what can we learn from this? I think the need for planning for the medium – long term is absolutely essential. Particularly in terms of how we manage and use the vital natural resources that help agriculture and horticulture to supply the UK food supply chain. There is no question that prices for precious natural resources such as water (whether a tariff charge or license for abstraction) will increase in the next 5-10 years but that should not mean continuing to do the same old routine until someone says otherwise...

This sector needs to think and act now in order to be more efficient and secure in the supply of water. This view is reflected in a recent report we have completed for Defra on the use of water in livestock units, meat processing plants and abattoirs. It was surprising to find how few businesses implement even the most basic of water saving measures. Even the most modest of water saving measures can produce savings up to £2,000 per annum. It is always prudent to look at current practices first before investing in alternatives such as borehole abstraction or harvesting rainwater. If you would like to know more about our work for Defra or need advice about your water use, please contact Promar.

Tom Gill – Senior Environmental Consultant

New FMD Vaccine

Thu, 04 Apr 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Fantastic to read that a new type of vaccine has been developed for FMD, it is however some time away from commercial production.

The vaccine is more stable, doesn't require a cold chain, can cover a number of strains (this is a major advantage in some of the less developed countries where the disease is common), and it doesn't have the risk of the development of the disease when used as a vaccine. This could even go some way to eradicating the disease, and hopefully this technology could be used for other diseases too.

You may know Promar manage the Emergency vaccination resource on behalf of AHVLA and Defra so are ready to mobilise up to 600 staff and 70 vets in an outbreak, this breakthrough could make vaccination more effective.

David Cooke – Projects Director

LARGE FARMS, SMALL FARMS � actually, just very good farms are what we need

Thu, 28 Mar 2013 00:00:00 +0100

The following is reproduced from the Raconteur supplement from The Times on 25th March 2013:

LARGE FARMS, SMALL FARMS – actually, just very good farms are what we need

The simple reality is that within a generation, we will be feeding a world of 9 billion. We now have plenty of analysis of this, but the real challenge is to do something about it.

One of the responses around the world has been larger scale farms. At the same time, the concerns of pressure groups, consumers and others clearly need addressing. There is evidence from around the world that large scale farms can achieve high standards of animal welfare, environmental good practice, good working conditions and produce high quality food – at competitive prices. Size of farm is not always the key driver of these. We believe that in any production system, there is room for all types of farms. Being “very good” is actually the key requirement.

What do consumers want ? Good food, high quality, sustainable farming (but which might be a “difficult to define” concept) all seem a given. For a high %, value for money is also a key issue. We hope that most would also want to see a world where millions of people do not go to bed hungry every night, where global food supplies are not threatened, the environment is enhanced and high levels of animal welfare are attained as the norm. That’s a long list of “wants”. Farms both in the UK and rest of the world need, in the future, to be very good. Helping them achieve this, as a leading agri food consulting firm and a subsidiary of Genus plc, is what we are all about at Promar International.

Can large scale farms contribute to these goals - of course. Can small farms deliver all of these alone – probably not. The issues on how we produce food often seem much clearer cut from the UK. Life in many other parts of the world is not as straight forward, either for farmers or consumers. Can the UK alone feed the 9 billion – no. Can we show some of the way forward and play our part in encouraging investment in new ways of farming – yes.

For any project to move ahead successfully, it is necessary that the appropriate level of supply chain development, due diligence, and at times, “thinking outside the box” is carried out. There is no single solution that provides all the answers. What is also clear however is that the current market environment produces a huge range of opportunities in terms of securing sustainable supply chains and gaining long term advantage for our clients both in the UK and in global markets.

John Giles – Divisional Director

The Promar Conference

Thu, 21 Mar 2013 00:00:00 +0100

The Annual Conference has come and gone in a whirlwind! It involved gathering together all members of staff from the top of Scotland to the tip of Cornwall and from all areas of the business from the office based staff to the field staff, those that are used to dealing with glasshouses in Iceland to those that spend their days assessing parlours and effects on milk production.

Trying to make sure that you create two days of seminars, meetings and team work is quite a challenge but one that I hope was met with a varied agenda involving EVERYONE donning their wellington boots and getting their hands dirty with the challenges of muck scoring and ration sifting and then turning their hands to interpreting FATI reports and completing an antibiotic milk test using our Betastar product!

After those challenges lets hope that everyone increased their knowledge of the various areas our business covers and the diversity that we all undertake on a daily basis and will take that away with them to assist with new business and improving our clients to face the challenges ahead in the ever changing world of agriculture.

Louisa Sercombe – FBS Midlands Manager

Promar Conference 2013

Thu, 14 Mar 2013 00:00:00 +0100

I have just been involved in organising the Annual Promar conference, where all staff meet for a few days to share best practice and help develop the capability of our offering.

As ever it is amazing to see the range of services that we provide across the whole supply chain and across all sectors and within many countries.

Ranging from technical advice on feeding, fertiliser and milking machinery, to financial advice and feasibility studies. from milk and meat to grapes, apples, cut flowers and nuts.

And from the UK, to China, Chile, New Zealand, US and Iceland.

What fantastic people, skills and capability

David Cooke – Projects Director

City Food Lecture 2013

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Last week a colleague and I had the privilege of attending the City Food Lecture 2013 at the Guildhall in London. Here over 600 high profile members of the agriculture and food industry gathered, including HRH The Princess Royal, to listen to the Keynote speaker, Paul Bulcke the CEO of Nestle SA on the topic of ‘Water – the linchpin of food security’.

The damaging effect of water was felt by everyone all over the globe in 2012, in the UK it was the second wettest year on record, causing wide spread flooding and crop damage, whilst in other parts of the world such as America droughts caused severe harvest shortages. The impact of water on our world is only to continue in the future with the population forecast to increase by 2.5billion by 2050.

The issue of where water will come from in the future to feed everyone is in many people’s minds the biggest issue on the planet, second only to the economic crisis in rankings by the World Economic Forum.

Mr Bulcke started his lecture by stating how important water is and that it is affecting our food security and urgent action is needed, due to the growing population and changing diets. It takes 1,500 litres of water to produce 1Kg of wheat, whereas it takes ten times more water to produce the same amount of beef. With growing meat and dairy consumption, and the western diet becoming more popular in more countries, the strain on our water resources is ever increasing.

Other key areas of food security discussed included:

• Slowdown in production growth
• Distortions (subsidies)
• High prices and volatility
• Bio fuels

Mr Bulcke went on to explain how intervention on water in the future needs to be both done on a macro and micro scale, and is an issue that can be addressed from a local level. Companies need to stand up and play their role as water is linked to their survival. For a company to be successful they need to have economic and social value, providing nutrition and rural development, whilst using resources in a sustainable way.

For the future, key actions include:

• Increasing efficiency in the value chain – saving water in factories and sustainable water management. Working with producers through agronomists and R&D in crops allowing less water to be used in production.
• Efficiency of food supply chains – minimising food wastage, and improving harvest, storage and processing in developing countries.
• Working together – support from policy makers and government agencies to implement at a local level.
• Reducing distortions – create an honest flow of agriculture in a sustainable way and remove inefficiencies.
• The value of water- water carries with it the greatest value of any resource on the planet but compared to a diamond which has one of the highest prices, but little use, the cost is minimal.

Mr Bulcke drew to a concluding statement that water is a human right for everyone to access, but the way that it is used needs to alter on price e.g drinking Vs for swimming pools. Food is important for everyone, but water is even more so. With water being so scarce and only going to become more so in the future why are we not acting now and doing something? Water is a huge problem, but it can be solved by simple things, it needs to be looked and addressed from all sides.

Elizabeth Bonsall – Research Analyst

A POST CARD FROM BERLIN

Thu, 21 Feb 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Last week, Lisa Williams and I made what has become something of an annual pilgrimage to Berlin to Fruit Logistica which takes place over 3 days. A few personal highlights this year – queuing in the snow for a taxi on the Thursday night – where was any semblance of order there (?!), meeting an ex colleague who I hadn’t seen for many a year, but who looked exactly the same, the problems getting in (or not as the case might be!) to the Peruvian Reception on Wednesday, the inevitable stack of business cards that you seem to accumulate and coming back with a clutch of enquiries for new business, and in a few cases, some new business confirmed.

The statistics surrounding Fruit Logistica are, of course, highly impressive: some 2,500 trade exhibitors from 80 countries. Some 56,000 visitors from well over 100 countries. Foreign exhibitors account for around 90% of the total. Over 1,000 media representatives from 50 countries accredited. As such, Fruit Logistica is now established as the main global event of its type for the fresh produce sector. For us, it is a “must attend” event.

There always seems to be the ongoing debate as to whether there are more or less visitors than the previous year and are the halls more or less busy than the last time. To me, it always seems busy every year, especially in the middle period of the 3 days!

What do we get out of attending - well there is a great opportunity to see a whole range of past and current clients, as well as hopefully meet some new ones too. A well planned itinerary is essential otherwise you can end up wandering round for ages, and never meeting any of the people that you really want to.

Over the duration of Fruit Logistica though, we might pick up some new business – or confirm something that has been in the pipeline maybe – this year, we managed to do both. We also find a plethora of other things that our clients might want help with over the coming weeks and months – some more urgent than others of course. It’s good to talk!

What often strikes me (and this year was no exception) is how positive people seem to be about future market prospects, even in what is still a pretty testing time for many companies. The EU economy still can’t seem to make its mind up as to whether it is in or out of recession and the operating is still tough. While the EU budget appears to have been agreed, the detail of what this might mean for CAP support to fresh produce is still to be decided. Consumers are often still uncertain about job security and savings and pensions and this translates in to changeable behaviour in the retail sector. Witness the UK, where the growth seems to be coming from opposite ends of the market. Challenges of volatile currency, oil prices and other energy costs are still a problem, environmental issues such as water and carbon still need to be tackled effectively. The availability and cost of labour is an ongoing issue, and the weather – let’s not go there!

Market conditions in other parts of the world look maybe more encouraging such as in Russia, India, China, South East Asia, Latin America parts of Africa and the Middle East but of course these places are not without their challenges too and are subject to many of the issues mentioned above to a varying degree. Suppliers and exporters around the world, while still viewing the UK market and indeed other EU markets as an important part of their overall export mix, are seeing lucrative opportunities – even from a small base maybe, in other parts of the world away from the UK and Europe. Security and assuredness of supply are going to be increasingly important issues in the future.

But all in all everybody seems to be positive. It’s an exciting time for agriculture and food and the fresh produce sector seems no different – in fact it appears to our mind even more buoyant than other agri food sectors we deal with.

If there were concerns, however, about the strength of the world economic recovery, you would never know it from the 3 days in Berlin. Not least, the scale of some of the stands, the hospitality on offer and the busy hotel foyers, packed bars and restaurants you find in the evenings around Berlin. They weren’t all there for the film festival, surely?!
As well as meeting friends and clients from all over the world, it often makes me smile that you can go all that way and also meet up with people from the UK that you might not see again for the rest of the year! It seems a funny way of doing it – there is one person I nearly always see in the bar for a beer at Tegel. We have a 20 minute catch up and that’s it - it has become almost something of a tradition. All part of the Fruit Logistica experience!

Now it’s all onto the follow up with people we met, and on too, with the day job. But I am sure we will be back next year at the same time in Berlin for 3 more days of catching up with contacts and clients, queuing in the snow for a taxi and all that, trying to find a decent, but often last minute souvenir to bring back from Tegel (no chance!) and finally arriving back home, tired but happy (we hope!)

John Giles – Divisional Director

My Fferm Ffactor journey (Part 5)

Thu, 07 Feb 2013 00:00:00 +0100

The night before the filming of the fifth episode, we were all put up in a hotel in Criccieth on the Lleyn peninsula. It happened to be the night the first episode was broadcast, so we met up for a meal with Non, the producer and watched it on the TV in the bar. We were told the following day's task was something to do with cheese and based at South Caernarfon Creameries up the road.

The next morning we turned up bright and early at the cheese plant, and were given our instructions. We were put into 2 groups of 3, I was teamed up with Dilwyn and Geraint. Basically we had to come up with a new cheese: brand it, make it, design the packaging and pitch it to Alan Wyn Jones, the MD of the company. The first part was to come up with 3 prototypes and carry out some market research. We were given 4 cheeses of varying strengths, and about 30 different ingredients ranging from chilli to beer, then combine a cheese with one or more of the ingredients. The permutations were infinite, however, we ended up with a 'beery' cheese, a 'fruity' cheese and a 'peppery' cheese. Next job was to design a questionnaire, and go to Pwllheli to do the market research. That turned out to be harder than expected. We were told to find welsh speaking people to do the taste test for the cameras, but being a quiet Thursday morning in October, it was a job to find any human activity whatsoever. One of the few Welsh speakers I could find was an alcoholic waiting for the Conservative club to open.

Next job was making the cheese. We 'fudged' our questionnaire results and went with our 'Marmite' red and black pepper cheddar, and called it 'Tan y ddraig' ('Dragon's fire')We were given the raw materials, a cheese grater and a food processor and told to get on with it. Geraint went off to meet the graphic designer to design the packaging as he was the 'creative' one, while me and Dilwyn grated and processed. The cheese resembled putty, but we put it in the mould ready for pressing, and crossed fingers that it would turn out ok. Then it was back to the hotel, and up until 1am putting the PowerPoint presentation together for the following morning.

Next morning we gave our pitch, which went well. Afterwards it was back to Glynllifon College for the twlc trafod ('discussion sty'), cab cyffesu ('confession cab') and the eviction. I was called to the 'twlc' first. As I was teamed up with 2 of the strongest characters, I was convinced that I was being called in to be told I was the 'weakest link' and made to take the wrap for losing the task. In actual fact, I was called in to be told that we'd won the task for being ambitious without being overly risky. The others had taken the safer bet, and made a 'same old same old' cheddar & leek cheese.

Then on to the build-up and nerves of the eviction. Both Caryl and Robin were sent home, and all of a sudden we were a very small group of four. This was now a big deal.

If I survived one more eviction I'd be in the final........To be continued

Gethin Owen – Senior Farm Business Secretary

A Postcard from Reading

Wed, 30 Jan 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Last week, I was invited to chair the 47th Agricultural Club Conference at Reading University. On a cold night, almost 200 people turned up, a mix of students, staff and outside guests, for this event which is organised largely by the students themselves. It is a well established event in the University calendar.

The theme of the evening was a good one…

We all know that there are going to be 9 billion people in the world, that diets are changing in the Asian markets and there are economic, environmental and climatic constraints to food production in parts of the world - as well as demanding times in the UK food supply chain. So what is the real, hardnosed commercial reality of all this ?

A well put together panel of Mark Buckingham from Monsanto and our own Stuart MacLennan from Genus Plc kicked off the evening giving us a thoughtful view of what this reality is in the crop and livestock sectors. They were then joined by Mike Gooding, the recent Chair of the Oxford Farming Conference and Director of FAI Farms and Carl Atkin of Kinn Agri.

I am sure that the audience will have all taken home with them their own key messages, but to me these might be best summed up as:

• The need for significant ongoing investment in R & D – both conventional and high tech – but at the same time, always bearing in mind the requirement to show genuine benefits across the supply chain and especially to consumers

• That despite all the obvious attraction and interest in emerging markets, the UK and Western Europe are still key areas for agricultural and food production

• The need to ally data and information with the latest IT opportunities to produce better levels of market understanding and measure and manage what we do in our businesses

• To work really hard at developing more joined up supply chains

• To engage fully with a wide range of industry stakeholders

• To talk and listen to staff and customers on a regular basis

• To recruit and retain really good people to the business, at all levels

• To use IP and brands to generate value from the supply chain

• To recognise that long term growth will still come from outside domestic markets

After the formal part of the evening had finished, as always, there was a chance to have a chat with old and new friends and a quick drink before heading home. No need for the ice scraper that night, although it was still pretty chilly out. It was good to get home (5 minutes round the corner for me !) in time to see Question Time and start thinking about what was in store for the next day – and that’s part of the commercial reality of what we all do for a living.

This was a really good evening well organised by the students and thanks also to the sponsors, Smith Gore, Mole Valley Farmers and Old Mill too, as well as the speakers themselves.

John Giles – Divisional Director

My Fferm Ffactor journey (Part 4)

Thu, 24 Jan 2013 00:00:00 +0100

After completing the third programme, there was a month's break before filming the fourth episode. This time we made our only journey south to Aberystwyth, so I got there late the night before, after having to turn back 20 miles into the journey because I'd forgotten to bring my wellies with me (wherever we went, we were always told to bring smart shoes, work boots and wellies).

We were told that Wynne Jones (one of the judges), would be filmed giving us a 'wake up call' in the morning, and we were asked to play along with the game and pretend it was 5am. It was obviously something to do with milking cows, then. We were taken to a farm 5 miles up the road belonging to the runner-up in the first series of the programme. They put us in the farmhouse's conservatory as a 'holding pen' and one by one, we donned our aprons and nitrile gloves and were led into the parlour. Robin, a beef and sheep farmer who had never milked a cow, went first, and after he'd finished, Daloni (the show's 'Davina') said to the rest of us 'Oh my God, that was painful!'. Whatever it was we had to do, didn't sound too good. I was second to go, and I have to say… I quite enjoyed it!

We had 8 cows lined up in a rotary, and had to prepare the udder and attach the clusters. Between every cow we had to answer questions given by Aled Rees relating to milk and the dairy industry, and had to answer pretty sharpish otherwise the next cow would end up halfway around the carousel and you'd have missed the chance to get the clusters on.

Even though I hadn't milked a cow for 10 years, it turns out I won the task. I got all 8 clusters attached, was given 9 out of 10 for technique, told I had a very cool and relaxed approach, and answered all but one question correctly. Geraint, one of the two dairy farmers amongst us, felt as though he had a point to prove and was quietly determined to win the task. In the judgement, he was told he got 'a bit too excited'(nearly ripping out ACR cords in the process!),and only three out of the seven of us managed to get all clusters on

After lunch, we were put back in the farmhouse 'holding pen' then one by one taken to a field a short walk away. John Owen from Gelli Aur college was the guest judge. We were given a plate meter, and given 10 minutes to measure the grass cover in the field, and calculate for how long it would feed 100 cows. 10 minutes didn't sound much, so I ran like hell, zig-zagging my way around the field 'plonking' the plate meter every few yards. We were given the dry matter intake of a cow, but had to estimate the size of the field ourselves. I made my calculation without any ‘faffing’, ending up with 5 minutes to spare. Although I had the most accurate plate meter reading, we checked via the GPS on our phones, and I'd underestimated the size of the field by nearly 2 acres, resulting in my answer being half a day out.

Next morning we were back in Glynllifon college. I was spared the twlc trafod (discussion sty) yet again, so only had 'cab cyffesu' (confession cab) to do, and the tension of the 'eviction' to contend with. Robin, Caryl and Wyn were pulled forward, with Wyn being sent home, mainly for fluffing his calculations on the plate metering.

We were halfway through, I was in the lead in terms of tasks won, and was quietly starting to think I could get much further than I'd originally planned............To be continued.

Gethin Owen – Senior Farm Business Secretary

My Fferm Ffactor journey (Part 3)

Thu, 17 Jan 2013 00:00:00 +0100

About a week before the filming of the third programme of the series, I had a phone call from one of the production assistants asking whether I had a working sheepdog. We have two at home, one only works for dad, and the other one's useless. It was obviously going to be a sheep-related task. The next day we all had a call saying they weren't going to bother with the dogs, and shearing was going to be a part of the task - they forewarned us in case some of us had no experience, and ended up butchering the sheep.

The first day was at Llysfasi college, and we were put into two teams of four. I was teamed up with Rhodri from Bala, Robin from the Lleyn peninsula, and Wyn a Genus AI technician from Whitland was the designated team leader. The first part of the task was setting up a Prattley mobile sheep handling system, rounding up 40 ewes and lambs, and shedding the ewes from the lambs. We were a slick operation and did it in just under 6 minutes.

As we had the quickest time, we were given a 20-second head start for the shearing. We were given some old Welsh mountain ewes that were too thin to shear earlier on in the summer, and even though it was mid-August, they were still resembled coat hangers. We had one each and although they weren't the easiest things to shear, we ended up thrashing the other team with a ewe to spare. During the post task interviews with Daloni, Wyn commented 'It's a Wyn-win situation!', from then on, he became known to everybody as Wyn-Win

The following morning we were at Glynllifon college, and the task for the morning was assembling a flat-pack tractor (one of the little Chinese mass-produced things) As I always considered myself to be absolutely useless when it came to dealing with anything mechanical, I volunteered to read the instructions for the team. The tractor gradually took shape, I did the usual thing that men do, and ditched the instructions, and got stuck into the actual building. Apart from a few red herring parts they had put in amongst the real parts that we fitted by mistake, it came together surprisingly easy - a bit like putting an IKEA wardrobe together. We finished well within the 3-hour time limit, while the other team were miles off finishing at the end of the 3 hours.

All in all, it was another job well done, we thrashed the other team, so were spared the 'twlc trafod' (discussion sty). After doing the 'cab cyffesu' (confession cab), we had the usual high-tension of the eviction, and Carwyn, the 19 year-old from Pembrokeshire was sent home.

Gethin Owen – Senior Farm Business Secretary

Fruit Logistica for Turkey - 12 months on

Thu, 10 Jan 2013 00:00:00 +0100

Fruit Logistica Berlin is a huge event – we all know that.

In 2012, it attracted some 2,500 trade exhibitors from 80 countries. Foreign exhibitors account for around 90% of the total. In 2012, this was Turkey. In 2013, it will be Peru. In past years, countries such as Chile and Morocco have also carried out this role. As the 2013 event fast approaches, it might be worth looking at the motivation to fulfill this role and the impact it can have by acting as the main partner to such a huge event.

Key export markets to have emerged over the last 10 years include the likes of Russia, the Ukraine, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern markets and Eastern Europe. Exports to the EU are still quite modest in comparison, but still represent a key future market for the Turkish fruit export sector. Total production has now reached over 40 million tonnes per annum and exports are now valued at US$2.1 billion per annum. In the future, Turkey is aiming to export fresh produce worth US$10 billion by 2023. Involvement in Fruit Logistica 2012, as the lead sponsoring country, was expected to play a key role in achieving this ambitious goal.

This role as official partner country is seen as highly prestigious in its own right. It also confers acceptance into a small group of countries that are seen to be highly serious about their emergence as key suppliers to the international fruit and vegetable sector. Turkey is now firmly in this group of countries - sponsoring Fruit Logistica 2012 only served to underline this. Due to its geographic proximity, Germany is of course a key export market for the Turkish produce sector. The Turkish sponsorship of Fruit Logistica is however a much more serious statement of mid to long term intent to be a major supplier to international markets such as Russia, the Former Soviet Union and the Middle East and Gulf, and longer term to Asia too. Our own conclusions on the importance of Fruit Logistica for Turkey in 2012 are as follows:

• Turkey has set its stall out – participation in Fruit Logistica is a key, mid to long term part of its overall export development strategy for the fresh produce sector and for many organisations who attend Fruit Logistica, there is a strong sense of “we have to be there” (not least, it is far from just an EU based event these days). We would expect to see a stronger Turkish presence at Fruit Logistica in the future, not weaker

• Acting as the main official partner country is a high prestige activity and confers a high degree of credibility as to the seriousness of that country’s intent to be seen by its peers as a leading produce supplier – as such, this “one off” it as much about establishing further credibility in international markets, as anything else

• In the context of current annual fresh produce exports of some US$2.1 billion and planned exports of US$10 billion within 10 years – the expenditure required to participate is however, in effect, minimal

The impact of Turkey’s participation is therefore twofold: the obvious prestige gained from acting as the main official partner country – this is probably in the short term. The longer term benefit of attending such an event and all it entails – the making of, and following up on, commercial contacts over the longer term, in the case of the Citrus Promotion Group since 2008, is what will help drive the development of the Turkish export sector towards its ambitious 2023 targets.

John Giles – Divisional Director

My Fferm Ffactor journey (Part 2)

Thu, 20 Dec 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Filming of the second program was done over two sessions in early August. For the first task, I was told it was an individual task which was to be held at Emyr Evans machinery dealers in Denbigh. As they have a Massey Ferguson franchise, and my uncle has a new-ish MF, I went over to his farm the night before just to familiarise myself with a Massey (as I have a John Deere at home).

As I lived the closest, I had to be there first thing and go first. The task was to take a tractor with a loader and flat-8 bale grab round an obstacle course. I was walked around the course before setting off, and although it was a bit narrow, it seemed pretty straight forward. I thought as I'm used to having to play around in confined spaces in my tractor at home, I'd be ok… How wrong I was.

I got to the first corner, a switchback with 2 tractor widths to turn in, after to-ing and fro-ing for ages to try and wiggle myself round, (I only had 7 minutes to complete it in), eventually I thought 'bugger it' and rode over the bales just to get going again. I picked up the 8 bales from the stack then had to negotiate my way around a wooden 'roundabout'. I caught the edge of it with the wheel all the way round, wrecking it in the process. After riding over more bales negotiating a chicane, the final part of the course was to hook up to a bale trailer and reverse out over the finish line. After a minute or so of quiet swearing, a voice from the walkie talkie in the cab told me my time was up.

Shortly afterwards in the confession cab, I said what was to become one of the most commonly used clip within all the montages of the series - 'I promised my granny I wouldn't swear on this programme, but f***ing hell, that was hard!'

The next day, we met up in Ruthin, and were taken over to the livestock market. They had penned up 5 cattle of various breeds and ages, and the first part of the task was to label each one with the correct breed, weight and age. I was paired up with Anna Jones from Pembrokeshire, and although we were out with some of the weights, and labelling the Salers cow as a Stabiliser, we didn't make a complete hash of it. Once all 5 pairs had done the same, the second part of the task was showing the cattle. We were assigned a Simmental cow, and I volunteered to lead, while Anna followed. The cow had a calf with her, that had to stay in the pen, so she started fretting once in the ring, and wasn't the easiest thing to handle. After a few minutes of circling the show ring, we were placed last.

No big surprise, but Anna and me got called into the 'twlc trafod' (discussion pigsty) for a grilling by the two judges. We were told we were both the only 2 who couldn't finish the tractor task, and were basically useless at showing cattle. I was asked where it all went wrong seeing as I had a good week the previous week. On filming days, it was as though you lived in a 'Fferm Ffactor' cocoon, and everything in the real world outside didn't matter, so spirits were low to say the least. Next stop was the eviction. I was convinced I'd probably have to go, but Anna and Eilir from Anglesey were pulled forward and sent home.

I was given the benefit of the doubt after a storming first week, and was reprieved. When it was shown on the telly, the editors let me off, and didn't make too much of a big deal of my own balls-ups, while the two who got the boot had theirs exaggerated. A huge sigh of relief, and on to programme number 3....

Gethin Owen – Senior Farm Business Secretary

My Fferm Ffactor journey (Part 1)

Thu, 13 Dec 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Before I begin, I haven't suddenly developed a stutter, but a hard 'F' in Welsh is spelt 'FF'

I was on-farm one afternoon in late June when I received a phone call from a production assistant from Cwmni da (translates to 'Good company' - a TV production company based in Caernarfon). She told me that somebody had nominated me to go on 'Fferm Ffactor'. My initial reaction was 'Oh bloody hell, youre joking!!'.Fferm Ffactor is a primetime program on S4C, first shown in 2009, and has become an annual series. It's like a hybrid of the 'Apprentice' and X-factor, but for farmers. Basically it involves an initial group of 10, performing agriculturally related tasks, some being individual, others being in teams. At the end of each show, the poorest performer gets the boot, with the winner receiving an Isuzu pickup. The judges, or the 'Simon' and 'Louis' of the series, are Prof Wynne Jones (ex principal of Harper Adams) and Aled Rees (Dairy farmer from Cardiganshire, and winner of the first series), with a 'guest expert' judge making an appearance for some of the tasks.

The production assistant, wouldn't tell me who had nominated me (still don't know to this day), but asked if they could come over to see me, so we arranged for her and the producer to call by one morning the following week. They came over, we had a chat, and I recorded an introduction of myself to a video camera. They said they were seeing about 50 other people, and would let me know either way within a week. A few days later, I had a call to say they'd decided they'd like me to be on the show. I thought I wasn't enough of an all-rounder, being that I spend the bulk of my waking hours sat in front of my laptop, but I knew that they always had a farming-based 'mastermind' in the first show, which I knew I'd be ok with. March year-end time was winding down, so I thought to myself 'what the hell'. As long as I didn't get the boot in the first show, I'd be happy.

I was ordered to meet the crew and the other contestants at Glynllifon agricultural college the following week for the first day of filming. I turned up and met the other 9 contestants, one of which happened to be a client of mine. After signing a few bits of paper with some very small print on, we were told that the first task was a 'bonus' preliminary competition - an obstacle course on a quad bike & trailer. The fastest 3 qualifiers that day got to do it again at the Royal Welsh show, and whoever got the best time there won the quad bike. It didn't go too well. I came 7th out of 10, so was out of the running for the quad bike. Even so, I still had to attend the show for the 'grand presentation' of this year's 10 contestants to the public, and watch Rhodri Evans from Bala win the bike.

The following Sunday, we were summoned to the Rhug estate farm in Corwen for the first 'proper' task - one of the features of the show is that the contestants aren't given any prior warning to what the tasks might be. We were split into 2 groups of 5, one group hidden away in a 'green room' while our group was taken to one of the farms' sheds to find 5 hanging dead chickens waiting for us. We were given 10 minutes to pluck them, so I went ahead and plucked. We used to keep a few turkeys when I was in school, and I've plucked a few pheasants since then, and I ended up doing a tidy job of it. Some of the others seemed to skin, rather than pluck their chickens. After the second group had done theirs, we were told the next stage of the task was dressing the chickens. We were shown how to do it by the guest judge, and I managed to produce a respectable-looking chicken ready for the oven.

The following day, we met up on a farm a few miles up the road for the 'mastermind' task. I was one of the first to go into the black chair. I managed to answer all the questions, and after my 2 minutes were up, I was reasonably happy with how I'd done. After dinner, we filmed the 'Confession Cab' (the equivalent of big brother's 'diary room' where you sit in a tractor cab talking about what's on your mind to a video camera). I wasn't called up for the Twlc Trafod, (Welsh for 'Discussion pigsty')- the equivalent of Alan Sugar's boardroom, where you're brought in front of the judges to be told how crap you were. Finally, we were lined up for the 'eviction', the 2 who did the poorest over the 2 tasks were pulled forward, but a bit of a 'twist' took place. We were told by Daloni (the 'Davina McCall' of the show) that the judges had decided we could all stay for that week.

We weren't given the results on the day, but had to wait until it was on telly 2 months later. I won both tasks - the 'mastermind' by a mile. I had survived the first program, and things were looking up.

To be continued...........

Gethin Owen – Senior Farm Business Secretary

Act Now to get Grassland in Good Shape

Thu, 06 Dec 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Dairy farmers need to start their planning now to ensure grassland gets off to the best possible start next spring. With variable forage stocks on many farms and spiralling feed costs, many dairy farmers will be looking for an early turnout. They will also want to do what they can to ensure larger forage stocks next year.

The starting point for this is the soil – the abnormally wet summer has wreaked havoc with field conditions. Soil is a dynamic medium which is forever changing, and the way it is managed will have a significant impact on how well crops will perform.

Three attributes of the soil affect productivity:

texture
structure
nutrient levels.

You can’t do anything about soil texture. If you have clay soils, you have clay soils and the challenges they bring. Likewise for light soils. You have to farm the soil type you have. But you can do something about soil structure and nutrient contents.

Soil structure which includes the key area of compaction is entirely a consequence of how the soil is managed. Poor structure leads to reduced growth and patchy crops, slower spring growth and increased incidence of waterlogging and poaching. Many fields took a hammering this year due to the incredibly wet conditions. Signs of compaction damage are more common as is rutting and poaching damage. Unless this is put right then performance next year will be reduced and turnout potentially delayed.

My advice is to take action to break up pans as soon as possible and learn from this year in order to reduce problems in the future. Changes to grazing infrastructure can help reduce problems with poaching and compaction. Smaller paddocks will reduce the time cows spend on each piece of grazing which helps reduce the problems. Avoid cows walking across one field to reach another where possible. Consider making more gateways to reduce damage here too.

The other area where action now can make a big difference is crop nutrition. With fertiliser prices on an upward trend, it is vital to ensure fertiliser is applied correctly to maximise return on investment. When used properly, fertiliser can still give a return of at least 2.5: 1 when used on grassland, so what can be done to improve the effectiveness with which it is used?

The starting point is to make sure you only use what you need to. Applying too little fertiliser, either N, P or K can reduce yields while applying too much can prove an expensive exercise. When you are applying fertiliser, whether from the bag or the slurry tank, you are supplementing the nutrients already in the soil to ensure there are adequate nutrients to support optimum plant growth. So it is essential to know the nutrient status of the soil.

Analysis of soil samples from over 200 farms in North West England carried out by Promar showed that over 40% of sampled fields were potash deficient. Indices below 2 indicate that insufficient potash is available to support optimum plant growth, and a need for additional potash applications. At a soil index of 0 potash deficiencies can cost up to £75/ha in lost production and reduce silage yields by up to 15%, equivalent to 1.5 tonnes of dry matter per hectare. Equally, if the field has a high index then fewer nutrients can be applied. For example, a grazing field with a soil index of 2 requires 30kg/ha less phosphate and potash (25 units per acre) than a field at soil index 1. At current prices this would be a saving of £46 per hectare.

When having soils analysed, the importance of checking soil pH is vital to maximise availability of other nutrients to plants. Grass requires a soil pH of 6.0-6.5. If this falls to 5.5-6.0 then annual dry matter yield will fall by around 4%. If pH falls below 5.5 then DM losses will exceed 10%. Correct pH is the way to ensure the plant can use the nutrients supplied.

The sooner you get soils analysed, the quicker you can develop a cost-effective fertiliser plan to ensure grass growth is optimised next spring to help increase output and hopefully achieve an earlier turnout. Taking action to minimise the effects of compaction will also help make sure cows are out grazing as soon as possible

Charles Skelton – Senior Consultant

Peru - Niche Producer, Large Exporter, & Catching up Fast

Thu, 29 Nov 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Our work at Promar takes us across the UK and internationally - sometimes a long way from our core business in the UK dairy, beef and sheep sectors. As an example, we have carried out a number of assignments in the Peruvian horticultural sector over the last few months. It would not have been too long ago that the mention of Peru in the international horticultural sector would have produced the response of “canned asparagus”.

Peru were the world leaders for this product, but in more recent times, have not least felt the heat of the Chinese processing sector breathing down their necks.

Part of the response has been a truly impressive growth of other sectors with products such as mango and avocado leading the charge. It is only maybe when one looks at the statistics you can really appreciate the scale of what has happened.

Global production of mango has increased in 10 years by 48% to 37 million tonnes. Global imports have increased by 61% over the last 10 years, from 622,000 tonnes to 1 million tonnes in 2010. Peru as a producer is growing rapidly, but is still relatively small, accounting for only 1% of world production. And the EU is the largest global mango import market, with some 370,000 tonnes imported in 2011. Peru is now the second largest exporter to the EU and has seen exports increase by a massive 675% from less than 10,000 tonnes to over 60,000 (tonnes) over a 10 year period. Exports from Peru to the EU are, however, still highly concentrated to the Netherlands and the UK – over 85% between them and as a result there is an opportunity to diversify the Peruvian export effort to the EU in the coming years.

A similar, and in some ways even more impressive situation can be found in the avocado sector. Global production has increased by 36% between 2001 to 2011, from 2.8 million tonnes in 2001 to 3.8 million tonnes. Peru’s production has steadily increased by 98% from 93,000 tonnes to 184,000 tonnes – but is still just 5% of overall world production. Between 2001 and 2011, overall EU imports have increased by some 99% from 104,000 tonnes to 208,000 tonnes and this is largely from 4 key suppliers - Peru, South Africa, Chile and Israel. Peru is now in a very strong position as the major supplier to the EU market supplying 56,200 tonnes in 2011 and has seen significant growth from less than 5,000 tonnes from 10 years ago.

Peru has now established itself as a serious player in the EU market with an excellent reputation and still has ambitious plans for future growth. If the more established suppliers were, just a few years ago, looking over their shoulders at what was happening in Peru – they might well find themselves following in the slipstream in the not too distant future.

In the past, industry observers looked at countries such as Kenya, Chile and Turkey as to how to build and develop a successful produce sector in an emerging market. While there is still a lot to learn from these countries, it is safe to say that Peru can now be firmly added to this list.

John Giles - Divisional Director

Promar�s Winter Savings

Thu, 22 Nov 2012 00:00:00 +0100

This winter, although cows are generally not milking well at the moment, I have come across a few cases where cows that have calved since housing are doing OK (nothing flash). It appears the mid and late lactation cows (that were affected by the atrocious conditions this summer) are the ones pulling the average down.

Generally feed rates are high (around 0.4kg per litre) but it is important to ensure that clients are targeting feed at the right cows… especially in the parlour!

I was with a client yesterday setting his parlour feeding chart and we discovered he was under feeding early lactation cows - especially heifers. When we totaled up what parlour cake he should use it was nearly 200 kg a day less than he is actually feeding – saving £1000 a month.

Jonathan Hill – Regional Consultant North

A Postcard from Zambia

Thu, 01 Nov 2012 00:00:00 +0100

A few weeks ago, I was lucky enough to have the opportunity to attend the conference of the Royal Agricultural Society of the Commonwealth held in Livingstone. This was an exceptionally well attended event with around 300 people there, with a good proportion of them doing so under the auspices of the “Next Generation” programme.

As always, the opportunity to meet colleagues from other parts of the world proved to be an invigorating experience and often helps put things in a wider context. Not least in the UK, and without underplaying any recent developments in the agri food sector, we can sometimes get a bit wrapped up in our own challenges and things that might not be quite right.

Having listened to a series of really good speakers over 2 days, several things struck me including:

Agriculture in Africa is inherently difficult - not least in some countries dealing with the aftermath of civil war and the breakdown of social and physical infrastructure as a result
Issues such as climate change and water are being seen as increasingly serious in Europe – but in Africa, the situation and its impact is considerably worse and the impact more dramatic
The overriding need for basic economic and political stability, and then investment in areas, such as education and health services in order to create an environment where inward investment can flow
The need for parts of Southern Africa to re-establish their position as potentially the bread basket of the world – not as one delegate (from Zimbabwe) said – the basket case of the world
The strong economic growth of some African countries – seeing annual GDP growth rates of 35 – 40% – albeit from low starting points. In the UK, we are still bumping along at around 1% and are impressed when we see growth rates in Asia of 5 – 10%
The need for really good systems of agricultural extension in order to boost productivity if we are serious about feeding an extra 300 million people in Africa between 2010 and 2020, especially amongst small scale farmers
How difficult it is to justify some aspects of the CAP in terms of preventing African farmers and processors from adding value at source
That for many farmers, not just in the UK and other parts of Western Europe, major international retailers really can be the door to success
Tough times might not last forever – but maybe tough and resilient people do!

I came away with the feeling that despite the challenges we face in the UK, it is still a pretty good place to farm and process food. We really should look more at the bigger picture as to what is happening in the rest of the world and put some things into a much wider context. It struck me too, that while some of the basics apply to farming anywhere (and not least in the UK) in Africa, every coin in the supply chain really does count and farming also requires huge attention to detail, hard work, determination and strong financial discipline.

It also only re-enforced my own view that in supply chains we need to be looking at number of things that we should/ought to do if we are to be successful in the future. These might include the need to consolidate – or be consolidated, to carry out ongoing full value chain analysis from seed to shelf, to remove and reduce waste, to use every bit of technology available as might be appropriate, to reduce costs and boost yields, benchmark, to innovate - products, services and business systems and to be the leader on consumer and category knowledge and be prepared to promote to customers, consumers, stakeholders, as well as invest in R & D and knowledge transfer.

This makes it look all very easy and it’s much more complicated than that, of course but the basics are often quite simple – as always, the implication is more challenging. I often find that a conference and/or event produce a phrase to remember – at this one, a speaker finished his presentation by concluding “farming cannot be a casino!” Priceless.

John Giles – Divisional Director

Promar takes a visit to the House of Commons

Thu, 25 Oct 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Last week, Promar International was the sponsor of the Presidents Dinner of the Food, Drink and Agricultural Group of the Chartered Institute of Marketing – this was held at the House of Commons, with around 80 members and guests in attendance.

The winner of the annual Excellence in Marketing went to Alpro UK and followed on from a host of other worthy winners over the last 8 years including the likes of The Fair Trade Foundation, Pink Lady Apples Association, Green and Blacks, Berry Gardens, Samworths, Donald Russell, Long Clawson and The English Wine Company.

The guest speaker was the Rt Hon Michael Jack, who in his speech, talked about how the whole subject of agriculture and food had risen up the agenda of governments around the world since 2007/8 and how UK retailers are actively looking to source locally produced products to a much greater degree than in the past

He also spoke on how, as an industry, we must be able to balance the commercial realities of gradually increasing farm sizes in the UK, the opportunity that the end of milk quotas might bring, better marketing of wholesome and nutritious food, with some of the concerns as to how we farm - held by some consumers and various NGOs. In just 25 minutes, he covered a huge amount of ground!

This was a good evening and enjoyed by all – I think! Promar is proud to be associated with this high prestige event. It was a great opportunity as well to entertain some of our UK and internationally based clients from across the supply chain in slightly different surroundings from normal!

John Giles – Divisional Director

Promar in Northern Ireland

Thu, 11 Oct 2012 00:00:00 +0100

As part of the commitment to growing our business, Promar is working to develop contacts in Northern Ireland - we are already having success in finding new clients to work with.

The province itself is dominated by livestock farming, with dairy cattle being a major enterprise. Farms tend to be highly stocked (>2 Livestock Units/hectare is not uncommon) and like so many places, the weather is a governing factor in running a successful farm business. This year has been unusually wet in mainland UK, with the same in Northern Ireland - some of the heavier farms have been housing livestock for most of the summer. As a result of being a heavily stocked area, the entire province is subject to restrictions on the use of both nitrates and phosphates, which could be a sign of things to come in mainland UK agriculture.

Milk price is an emotive issue across the UK, but Northern Ireland producers currently receive 23ppl for their milk, significantly below other UK producers. Milk prices are more closely linked to commodity prices in Northern Ireland, so watch this space. Concentrate feeds are a similar price to that paid by most UK farmers. However, availability of certain products such as Brewer’s Grains is very restricted and many farmers rely on food waste products (e.g. potatoes, apple pomace) to extend their forage.

Like all farmers, the challenge is there to reduce costs on farm by feeding effectively and making the best use of home produced feeds. Our experience so far has been positive and we believe there are a great many farmers that we can help and by doing so build our business in a new part of the world.

Andrew Suddes – Senior Consultant

Here�s to you Derek!

Fri, 05 Oct 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Our Derek Gardener was one of the three finalists for the Farmer’s Weekly Advisor of the year award. A few of us were lucky enough, as well as honoured to attend and support Derek last night.

It was a fantastic evening hosted by Seb Coe where the great people of our industry were all celebrated.

Unfortunately Derek was pipped at the post by the Scottish Pig Advisor Gordon Mcken.

However to get this far in such a major event is fantastic and provides us all the opportunity to thank Derek for what he has achieved, both for our industry, Promar and us.

So thanks Derek for a great evening.

David Cooke - Director of Projects

Foodie Opportunities at Garage Forecourts

Thu, 04 Oct 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I went to a meeting recently of the Food, Drink & Agriculture Group of the Chartered Institute of Marketing - always a bit of a mouthful ! - – where the speaker was David Wood, from Shell’s foodservice business.

This was a really good evening and produced some points of real interest, I thought – as well as some facts and figures to conjure with too! Shell has some 44,000 service stations in the world, around 1,000 in the UK and recently acquired a further 250 from Total.

On an annual basis, they serve around:

• 6 million cups of coffee
• 12 million sandwiches
• purchase 17 miles of bacon (to put in the sandwiches!)
• buy 500,000 apples
• operate some 350 off licences

Not just a petrol retailer then!

With the petrol retail market being one of the most competitive around – and supermarket chains being increasingly important in the supply chain, Shell carried out a wide ranging study of what their customers really wanted when they stop for petrol. They segmented their customer base in to 6 key types – with the “Road Warrior” being the most important – these are people who spend a good deal of time in their cars/vans/lorry.

Shell have developed their own sandwich range (Deli 2 Go) and linked up with Costa Express, as well as embarked on an ambitious programme of store renovations with better lighting, store layout, use of natural colours and most important of all – freshly prepared food and drinks. There has also been a renewed emphasis on staff training to produce those “great little moments” in store when people stop at their stations.

All part of Shell’s overall strategy to be “the best fuel retailer in the world”.

This was a great evening, well attended (around 65 of us there) and a lively Q & A session at the end. I think we all went away knowing a bit more about what really is driving the foodservice sector as a result...... and the opportunities it might provide for food producers and suppliers in the UK.

John Giles - Divisional Director

Making the Most of Farmer Funding

Thu, 27 Sep 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I am amazed how much funding is, and will be available to farmers to support them in developing their businesses - this is something that is largely funded by RDP. Their new skills programme, that we are currently involved in bidding for, will cover just about anything.

It is critical that we get farmers to engage with these schemes, and I am sure that they will be of huge benefit to individuals and the industry.

Businesses like ours are collaborating with vets, other consultancies, colleges and universities to ensure that capability on offer to farmers is second to none.

Let's make the most of it!

David Cooke - Director

Question Time - the future of UK food and agriculture production and marketing

Thu, 20 Sep 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Last week, I chaired a Question Time style event held at Stoneleigh with a panel of 4 - our own Andy Thompson from Genus, Caroline Drummond from LEAF, James O Mahoney from Clydesdale Bank and Jennifer John from CERES PR. This event was organised by the Food, Drink & Agriculture Group of the Chartered Institute of Marketing and follows on from other similar events held at Harper Adams, the Royal Agricultural College, Reading University, Riseholme College and Reaseheath.

We had a lively session with an audience of around 60 firing questions at the panel for almost an hour and a half. The questions started a bit slowly but were soon coming thick and fast from all angles. Subjects we covered included areas such as food labelling, the introduction of GM (or not as the case might be), the need to carry out more education of consumers as to the reality of modern UK farming, the dangers of obesity amongst all consumer types, the challenge of food security not just in the UK but also in emerging markets, the need for a more consolidated approach to marketing and promotion of agricultural and food products. And of course the almost obligatory question on the role of large scale farms in the UK. We even got on to the subject of ageing rock stars and their role in influencing consumer opinion. Brian May’s ears should have been burning by the end of the night.

I am probably a bit biased of course – but this was a great evening with a fully engaged audience and strong and informed views coming from the panel as well as the audience at times.

This CIM group holds other events round the UK on a regular basis and in the past, we have had Andrew McLay, Charles Skelton, Neil Wharton and Richard Williams all involved too – so no one is safe from being asked to be on the panel – rest assured of that!

It all wrapped up about 9.00 pm – with a chance afterwards to say hello to a few old friends afterwards – and to make some new ones too – before a longish, but all in all, very satisfying drive home with the key finally going in the door about 11.

John Giles – Divisional Director

Dairy Event - Livestock 2012

Thu, 06 Sep 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I have just had two busy days at the Dairy Event (Livestock 2012). The Promar / Genus stand was busy as usual, although the sudden spell of dry weather kept some farmers away.

The mood was more positive than we had expected, farmers visiting the stand appeared to be proactively seeking advice on a variety of areas including: technical issues such as nutrition, maize, and whole crop wheat; to bench marking using FBA data; and options for negotiating and setting up joint ventures to drive additional efficiency.

The work we have done on heifer management was very well received with six seminars being held across the two days. We also had a lot of interest in our study that has helped indentify some of the attributes of successful farmers. (For full details click here to read the FWI article, or to watch the online video).

It was fantastic talking to proactive farmers that really want to drive their businesses forward, we now have to get out onto farm and work with them to make it happen. It's just a shame we cannot do anything about the weather!

If you didn't manage to get the dairy event to have a chat then please drop us a line and we will be happy to pop out and see you.

David Cooke

A POST CARD FROM GUADALAJARA � Part 2

Mon, 03 Sep 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Following my recent trip to the 5th Annual Conference of the Mexican Association for Protected Horticulture (AMHPAC) I discovered that the confident and opportunistic Mexican industry also faces a set of potential problems in the future.

The most pressing of these is the fact that the Mexican industry is faced with the accusation of dumping onto the US market. This will be tested by the US Department of Commerce. During the conference AGM, a vote was passed to raise almost US$1 million to fund a legal defence of this case. Impressive – but the stakes are, of course, high. It struck me that every last cent of this might be needed. The dispute has been rumbling on for some dozen or so years already, and despite what the Mexicans see as a strong case, there are invariably two sides to every story.

Time will tell, of course, as to the final outcome, but higher import tariffs for Mexican imports would be a blow to the sector, not least when most other Central American suppliers to the US enter the market duty free. There appear to still be doubts too on issues of food safety and the commercial discipline needed to supply the US market on a consistent basis in trends of both price and quality. While labour costs in Mexico are lower than in the US, there were concerns expressed over productivity levels. These issues still clearly need attention.

All this pointed to an industry that had enjoyed terrific success in the North American market, but which at the same time had ignored calls for a more diversified approach to other international markets in the EU and Asia in particular, not just for tomatoes, peppers, aubergines and cucumbers, but for the wider range of the “Mexican basket”. And while there have been noises to diversify both products and markets in the past – while “the good times rolled” in the US – these have been, for whatever reason, largely ignored.

What has happened as a result is that, with a potential headache and a half in their only real export market, this industry has, at the moment, no real Plan B. This is always a dangerous position to be in. One is needed and needed quickly. As I concluded in my own presentation - the strategic options for the Mexican industry are actually, thankfully maybe, relatively limited – but still need careful analysis. As always, doing something about it is more challenging. This industry has enjoyed significant success in the past 10 years, but the saying “when the going gets tough the tough get going” never seemed more appropriate.

The immediate future market environment for this sector looks challenging, but show me a country or sector that doesn’t see it that way. With the increased demand for fresh produce globally over the mid to long term, the relatively low Mexican reliance on energy for heating greenhouses, ongoing investment in the physical infrastructure, the development of a new and supportive framework from government for support to the agri food sector, per se, and the other advantages that Mexico enjoys - all led by a progressive trade association in AMHPAC – points to an industry that will continue to grow.

An agreement with the Dutch on R & D seems a further smart move. Further consolidation of the supply and export base is required however, as has been seen in other Latin American countries, to avoid the danger of throat cutting intra industry competition and to give the Mexican sector more critical mass to invest and develop international markets. Most of all that “Plan B” is surely needed now, more than ever.

John Giles – Divisional Director

A POST CARD FROM GUADALAJARA � Part 1

Thu, 30 Aug 2012 00:00:00 +0100

For many - especially sports minded fans now in their 40s and 50s - the city of Guadalajara might be linked to one famous sporting occasion back in 1970: the scene of the England – Brazil World Cup clash, Gordon Banks and his save from Pele’s header et al!

Last week, however, it was the venue for the 5th Annual Conference of the Mexican Association for Protected Horticulture (AMHPAC). This saw an impressive two and a half day event take place, attended by some 400 growers and exporters and a good representation of US shippers and brokers - as well as a vibrant trade show running alongside. I was lucky enough to have been asked to make a presentation on the opportunities in international markets. On the way home - an 18 hour haul – I had time to reflect on what I had heard and learnt on my short, but exhilarating stay in Western Mexico.

The Mexican tomato sector has grown significantly in the last 20 years and is now in the top 10 producing countries in the world. In this context, however, it is still some way behind the real industry giants such as China (40 million tonnes), the US, India and Turkey (between 10 - 12 million tonnes) and the main EU based producers such as Italy and Spain, with around 5 - 6 million tonnes per annum.

Mexican production is still large at around 3 million tonnes per annum, but the protected sector has seen massive growth in the last 5 years – some 250% - and has been driven largely by exports to the US market. Modest exports to Canada, and even more so to Japan, make up the balance, but it is the US that has been the key to success for the Mexican sector to date. Exports have carried on increasing over the last 5 years, and have gone from around 1 million tonnes to almost 1.5 million tonnes. So far, so good.

The Mexican industry appeared to me as being initially one full of confidence and opportunity. During the first day of the conference, a long term agreement was signed with the Netherlands Embassy in Mexico for shared work on R & D, varietal developments, technology transfer and joint trade missions. This struck me as being both innovative and different from what we see in many countries, where attitudes to sharing information can be more cautious.

But are Mexican protected horticultural producers any different from farmers around the rest of the world? Every sector, every country, has of course its own set of issues and challenges – but in my mind, some of the things we hear from farmers around the world are often much the same – and can be summarised as believing the following:

• We are the best
• The competition is subsidised and/or disorganised
• We do not get paid enough for our product
• “It’s not our fault” – processors, exporters, importers, retailers and consumers – and even governments - do not understand
• We have a unique micro climate
• Last year was a bad year
• The answer is to produce more
• People will always want our products

It is our experience at Promar that sometimes these statements are true – and sometimes, actually often, they are not. It took me about half an hour to hear all of these things repeated to me in Mexico.

And there are potentially a series of problems ahead too which will be considered further in part 2...

John Giles - Divisional Director

To fix or not to fix...that is the question!

Thu, 16 Aug 2012 00:00:00 +0100

It’s that time of the year when the combines are rolling across the country and after a poor summer, thoughts start to turn to the autumn and particularly rationing cows once they come in for the winter - if they are not already in that is.

Much has been made of the rise in soya prices over the summer and the effect this is having on feed costs. Wheat prices have moved upwards too, although by no means to the same degree - wheat now trades at just below £200 per tonne, rising from £160 earlier in the year.

Drought in the US and reports of a disastrous crop in the Black Sea Region are potential drivers of upward pressure on wheat price, prompting many livestock farmers to ask the question “Should I book my wheat forward for the winter?”. This is a difficult question to answer as the wheat market is notoriously difficult to predict and there is technically no right or wrong answer. Each farm business should take a position on wheat, whether they are buying or selling, and understand the effects of a move in price. Some may wish to fix their feed cost, others might prefer to buy from the spot market, or even consider planting some (or even more) cereals next year to offset the increased costs.

In a volatile market, it is vital to have a plan and stick to it. Regularly review actions and consider whether it is prudent for YOUR business to fix a price.

Andrew Suddes – Consultant (Northern Team)

Understanding the UK market

Thu, 02 Aug 2012 00:00:00 +0100

We recently facilitated and organised a ‘UK Supply Chain Tour’ on behalf of a group of 10 South African table grape growers. This is the second visit that we have organised on behalf of the South African Table Grape Industry (SATI).

The weeklong tour started with John and Emma (Agri-food team) presenting an overview of the UK market – major players, structure, consumer spending etc. The growers then physically walked the supply chain covering: products entering the UK market via air freight, sea freight to pack houses and finishing at retail and wholesale markets. Other presentations were heard from the Fairtrade Foundation and Red Communications.

It is important for growers to understand how their products are perceived in the market place and to talk direct to their customers. During this visit they were able to talk directly to their buyers and consumers regarding the quality of their produce and to learn how they can best improve this in the future. The visit also provided valuable insight into royalties and licence agreements, understanding promotions campaigns, production practices in the UK market, competitor activity (and how SA compares) and of course developing new business.

There is no other better way for growers to truly understand a market, then to experience it for themselves. We look forward to welcoming more groups in the future!

Lisa Williams – Senior Consultant (Agri Food)

Promar�s positive impact on the sector

Thu, 26 Jul 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I recently came away from a client visit feeling happy knowing why I enjoy doing this job.

When we started working together the farmer told me that it was ridiculous for me to state that Friesian heifers should calve down closer to 2 years old than 3.

Since that discussion his latest batch of heifers, to be served this month, will be around 18 months old... and next month’s batch will not be far behind them! Heifer fertility on the farm is excellent so we expect to be calving heifers at around 25 - 27 months next year whereas the farmer really had been calving at around 3 years previously!

All of this has only been possible through hard work from both sides, and the work the farmer is doing is amazing! We still have lots to do but the progress has been phenomenal.

Promar Consultant

Accurate Information is Key to Milk Profit

Thu, 12 Jul 2012 00:00:00 +0100

With the recent processor milk price cuts affecting the UK dairy sector, accurate information is key to help maintain profitability.

With the Promar FBA giving me accurate and up to date information, I was able to find an extra 2ppl profit for one of my clients this week just by pin pointing areas where his technical performance could be improved. Following discussions with the herdsmen I will have put proposals in place for making change to achieve that extra 2ppl.

Jonathan Hill – Regional Consultant North

A holistic approach to milk price cuts

Mon, 09 Jul 2012 00:00:00 +0100

While the cut in prices to dairy farmers a few weeks back might have been seen as being on the cards, I think we are all shocked by the severity and speed of the further milk price cuts this week. It is important that the impact on the industry is well publicised.

We are, at Promar, in our role as consultants and advisors to the UK and international dairy supply chain, lobbying various stakeholders on this, especially where we feel we can have an influence. It is also important that we do not disrupt supply to consumers as it is critical to maintain their support.

We will be working closely with our clients and other producers to understand the impacts on individual businesses and help with future decision making. Now more than ever, this is a time for calm, logical thinking rather than knee jerk reactions.

It is also an opportunity to look more holistically at both individual farms, as well as the wider supply chain - not just focusing on price all the time, however tempting this might be.

Farmers need to develop businesses that can ride out the tougher times, as well as the good times, when prices have been higher than in the past.

A firm control of costs of production is essential for this, as well as an understanding of other critical areas such as: environmental good practise and welfare issues; what is happening in other parts of the dairy world; succession planning; dealing with the banks; training and all the other inter related, and often complex, factors that go to make up a successful dairy farm.

Please contact us. We are happy to talk things through and help our clients through this demanding time.

David Cooke - Director and Acting Managing Director

Chinese Food Safety - apples now involved?

Thu, 05 Jul 2012 00:00:00 +0100

China is a massive producer of most primary foods – 40% of the world’s apples, 60% of the world tomato crop and over 50% of world pork – the list goes on. And when things go not according to plan in China, the impacts can be huge. And nothing spreads like bad news – check out this story below on any web site and there are comments galore from all round the world.

This week, when in China on business, I noticed in the China Daily News a prominent article on the use of what are referred to as “protective bags” on the production of apples in Shandong Province. There is concern that there is a risk that these have been made using an illegal chemical impregnated in the bag to help prevent problems with pest and crop disease. China of course is a massive apple producer with an annual crop of some 35 - 40 million tonnes.

As someone said to me once in China – “they are not sure exactly how many people there are in China, let alone how many apples” but conventional wisdom is that the annual variation in yield is bigger than the overall crop in the next biggest world producer, the US, at some 4 million tonnes per annum. What happens in China counts.

Shandong is a leading producer of top fruit in China along with other key production areas, Shaanxi, Henan, Hebei, Shanxi and Liaoning account for 85% of production. The use of the protective bags has been widespread for many years and designed to protect the fruit from over spraying. The report this week only serves to underline the issues surrounding foods safety in China per se. It is not however just the fruit industry exposed to this sort of issue.
The 2008 melamine problems in the dairy sector caused some 300,000 illnesses and 6 deaths. This week again Wal Mart has had problems with possible contamination of sesame seed oil and squid products. This follows on from an issue with the incorrect labelling of organic pork a few months ago and accusations of selling pork from diseased animals.

The costs of getting it wrong in China are high. Sanlu, the Chinese dairy company at the heart of the melamine problem collapsed and was fined £2 million. Other dairy companies were ordered to pay out compensation of over £100 million. The MD of Sanlu was jailed for life and the 2 workers responsible for the contamination sentenced to death. The impact on Wal Mart’s business in China could be substantial, where it has some 370 stores in around 120 cities and revenue of some US$7.5 billion.

At the moment, the direct impact of the Shandong problem on the UK market is likely to be minimal. While China has become an increasingly influential player in the global produce sector, most exports are destined for other Asian markets, parts of the Former Soviet Union and only modest volumes typically entering the EU via the Dutch auction markets. It only re enforces however the concern over food safety in countries such as China and other Asian markets at a level maybe not seen before.

At a conference I attended earlier in the week, a presentation from the leading packaging company, Tetra Pak, suggested that up to 65% of Asian consumers are concerned over environmental and related issues and want to be seen as acting proactively on them – around the same level as found in the EU. Had the figure been quoted for Sweden or Switzerland, I would have not been surprised at all. It does show however the nature of some of these global concerns and which are no longer the preserve of Europe, Japan and North America.

And we have to be careful in the UK in jumping to too many conclusions on what others are up to – after a string of problems in our own food industry such as FMD, BSE, salmonella etc and from which it has taken years to recover especially in export market. As an example, The UK beef sector has only just announced that it can re commence exports to Hong Kong after they were suspended in 1996.

The moral of the story is clear. The issue of food safety is one that is not going to go away. It is coming to the attention of government agencies, consumers and others in the supply chain almost regardless of where you are in the world and what products you are involved with. Anything seen anywhere near cutting corners is a dangerous game to play. Even when it might appear a genuine mistake has been made, the impact on both human and business life, in the most extreme cases, can be severe.

John Giles - Divisional Director

A postcard from Beijing

Thu, 28 Jun 2012 00:00:00 +0100

The dust has just settled on the 10th Global Processed Tomato Congress held this week over 2 days in Beijing, with an array of speakers covering just about every aspect of the tomato processing sector in this time.

I was lucky enough to be asked to present my own paper at the start of the Congress, in which I tried to outline the key factors that would impact on the future development of the international market. This covered that the global food sector per se is going through a period of unprecedented change and the future will be very different from the past. These include the impact of factors such as the varied macro economic situation in the EU, US, BRIC and N – 11 countries, the impact of ongoing climate change, the need to probably accept we are in a period of high energy prices, the scale of retail consolidation, the role and influence of corporate social responsibility and the development of niche markets.

What else did I hear from my other fellow speakers over the rest of the conference?

A number of key messages kept coming back to me and which included the following:

• The sheer scale of the Chinese industry, with massive increases in production of both fresh and processed tomato over the last 30 years, but with consumption of processed products still very much in its infancy. This forms the basis of a massive market opportunity. And while China has made a big play in international markets, the future development of the Chinese sector will be largely determined by the growth of the domestic market and in particular the fast growing food service sector – as an example, McDonalds have gone from just 1 store in China in 1990 to over 1,600 today.

• The need to get profitability back into the sector – there were numerous references to maybe restraining future production, reducing over capacity in processing, making full use of new technologies across the supply chain and finding new markets. All easier said than done, of course, but the nature of the problem might be best summed up by the sheer number of processing factories in the key Chinese producing area of Xinjiang - some 160 in all. Even with the top few companies in China now accounting for an increasing share of the market (the top 10 now account for some 85%), the sector is too fragmented – not just in China, but at a global basis. Everyone, it seems, wants to grow and process tomatoes.

• The pre occupation with the established emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) when there are clearly opportunities for the development of new business in other areas of the world, such as the Middle East, Africa and other Asian markets such as Vietnam, Korea, the Philippines and Indonesia.

• The importance of creating sustainable supply chains and the strenuous efforts being made by both multinational food processing companies and life science businesses to achieve these, often with highly ambitious corporately driven targets attached to them, but at the same time the real progress in some cases being achieved here. Water, carbon and the wider contribution of tomato farming and processing to society all got numerous mentions as being important technical points, as well as meeting current consumer trends and aiding more efficient production.

• The nutritional benefits of processed tomatoes especially the presence of lycopene in the product and the benefits that this can have in the area of the prevention of cardio vascular disease but less certainty in its usefulness in the prevention of other diseases such as cancer, diabetes etc. There seems a lot we still do not know about lycopene and while more R & D might well be merited, the danger is that other super fruits might well capture the market for the health conscious consumer such as blueberries with a simpler and more straight forward promotional message “they taste nice!”

Red is a lucky colour in China and tomatoes and were often referred to in the opening speeches by local officials as being a “lucky fruit”. Red often means danger too. My overall feeling at the end of the 2 days was that if we carry on in the same way as we have in the past - over production and over capacity - thinking that somehow, things will get better on their own, it will be a case of “red eventually means stop”. Things clearly have to change if many producers and processors have found the last 3 years so challenging and the problems might not be over yet.

One of the questions I was asked at the end of my presentation was “if you were a gambling man, John, where would you place your bets for the future” – to which I replied, in the current market environment, I wouldn’t gamble on anything, but do my homework carefully – but probably plump for emerging markets such as Brazil, and Russia, and even places such as Iran, in the longer term.

The reality is, however, that such a range of opportunities exist for the well organised tomato processing business, this could be in any region of the world - where you can farm at reasonable scale, have access to good processing technology, the overall enabling environment is good, the climate is conducive to production and there is a strong customer base. While there might be, as if often the case, no perfect market for the processing sector to operate in, for the best of class, “red really can mean go” too.

John Giles - Divisional Director

Bringing lean management to dairy farmers

Thu, 21 Jun 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I went to a meeting looking at Lean management to see if it was appropriate to introduce to some of our dairy farmers. It is a concept that is taken from industry to achieve continuous improvement.

In my view this could be worthwhile on some our best farms as a means to identifying Key Performance Indicators (KPI) and continuing to drive businesses forward.

It is certainly an initiative that Promar are interested in bringing to clients.

David Cooke – Director and Acting Managing Director

The importance of good client relationships

Thu, 14 Jun 2012 00:00:00 +0100

It is always important to have a good relationship with clients - ones based on trust and compromise which in the end can result in huge improvements for the client.

I have had one such client relationship recently where discussions between the farmer and I resulted in positive results for the farmer. After following my advice he told me he has never known his bulk tank so full and so many calves on the ground!

Today I walked the grazing with the farmer - this time last year he had only just got cows out and spent the whole early/mid grazing season dealing with grass that had got away with them. This year cows were out in March and the swards have been grazed evenly and tightly! On a strip grazing system with no back fencing they are still achieving MASSIVE improvements on last year's grazing season, proper paddocks / backfencing will take a while longer to achieve but nothing’s impossible here!

Promar Consultant

A Postcard from Santiago

Thu, 07 Jun 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Chile lived up to its name last week, while the UK was bathed in sunshine, or so I hear!
While outside the Sheraton Hotel it was often overcast, cold and even raining, inside there was a warm and vibrant atmosphere at the Blueberry Committee Conference at which I was lucky enough to be asked to speak on opportunities in the international markets.

This is an industry which has gone from strength to strength in the last 10 years. Exports to the US and EU have been booming and the link up with McDonalds in the US shows how much opportunity there is still to come. Exports to the emerging markets such as Russia, China and the Middle East are taking shape and the opening up of the Korean market offers another significant opportunity as well.

Planting of fruit is still on the increase and the R & D programme looks strong. As often the case in Chile, there were numerous references to the high level of co-operation between growers, exports, the main trade association, ASOEX and the government export agency, PROCHILE. It all looks pretty good from afar.

This event, was however, far from a self congratulatory pat on the back. There is concern about the impact on shopping and supply and demand chain behaviour, as a result of the cautious economic recovery in North America and the huge uncertainty we are seeing in the EU market as a result of the € crisis.

Chile is also well aware of the potential competition from a host of other Central and Latin American growers in Argentina, Uruguay, Mexico and possibly Peru too. So why not invite them along to your conference and find out what they are doing – this is what happened. A sign of a confident industry.

There are concerns too over issues such as the seasonal peaks in production, water, labour costs and the high price of energy for cooling, packing and international distribution. Smaller farms are sometimes finding it difficult to meet breakeven performance. Yet for all these concerns it struck me that this is an industry that is well organised and has a strong sense of future direction.

Of course, it can play on the “super fruit” image and Chile’s strong natural advantages vis a vis phytosanitary issues – you can’t beat a good mountain range to help on this but there are other products that come into the super fruit category and all things have a natural life cycle in any case. Blueberries taste great, they are versatile and are riding a huge wave of positive publicity and exposure that other fruit and wider food categories can only dream about. Add in some really good growers, sharp exporters and a young and “up and at them” trade association – it all makes for a persuasive argument as to why this industry looks set for more success. Not least, market penetration is still relatively low and all the evidence is that if you can get consumers to try the fruit they come back for more. What a great position to be in?

One final thing – some 400 delegates largely stayed to the very end, even after a 2 day nonstop “love in” with berry fruits. This impressed me hugely – too often at conferences in the UK, people are too quick to slip away and miss the last session, claiming to be “too busy”. We are all busy, of course, but often conference organisers, aware of the problem, make sure the last speakers are the strongest of the lot and it really can be a case of “last is best”.

This was a great 2 days with lots of take strong, important, “take home” messages and right at the very end – the sun came out for a while. Now - is that a sign?

John Giles - Divisional Director

Making the most of the sun

Thu, 31 May 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Warm weather has certainly made the grass grow (I’m having to cut my lawns twice a week at the moment) and even the cows aren’t keeping on top of it.

It is important to remember that there is always the option to miss a paddock out and silage it rather than waste it!

Jonathan Hill - Regional Consultant North

Seeing the wood from the trees?

Thu, 24 May 2012 00:00:00 +0100

In today’s volatile and fast moving agricultural and food markets, the need for organisations to keep on top of the latest trends and market conditions has never been greater. We have spent a lot of time recently discussing this with our clients and the impact this might have on research needs and requirements.

However, the sheer volume and frequency of information available makes “seeing the wood for the trees” a huge challenge. Keeping on top of what is happening in all key international market trends is almost impossible. And the 24/7 nature of information these days means that it can be easy to become swamped in data. This wastes time and potentially clouds the real underlying trends. Most journals and news services, while playing their part in the information flow, simply focus on what’s ‘news’ at the present. To add to the confusion, global markets all operate with different currencies, measurement units and jargon.

The constant updating of what is happening is all good and well, but there is often a need amongst high level management for information on a consistent basis that allows easy and meaningful comparisons across the world. We have found that this need exists amongst agri food businesses of all types and wherever they are in the world.

Executive managers and board members in agri-food companies are typically very time poor and the ‘luxury’ of reading industry journals and news updates on a regular basis is just not achievable. Our experiences show that board members and C-level executives, generally value regular reports, typically on a monthly basis, which are designed to provide executives with highly structured reports with summary charts, headlines and interpretation supported by increasing layers of detail that can be “drilled down” into, if required.

Although the long term or big picture trend for many agricultural commodities looks very positive at present, the path forward is unlikely to be linear or smooth. Most industry experts expect volatility to be a key feature of agricultural and food markets for the foreseeable future.

I firmly believe that organisations that have invested in effective market intelligence systems should be in a better position to see significant changes in their markets as they develop and therefore make better management decisions to either capitalise on positive changes, or minimise the impact of negative changes.

For more information on the work we carry out in this area please contact us.

Andrew McLay - Senior Consultant

Postcard from Mumbai

Thu, 17 May 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Last month, 240 delegates attended the Fresh Produce India conference in Mumbai and I was fortunate enough to be asked to present a paper. It was a truly international affair with delegates travelling from 19 countries including those across Europe, North America, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, China and other parts of Asia. I have tried to capture some of the key points that came out of the 2 day conference and reflect on my own thoughts too.

The key note presentation outlined the global drivers for the fresh produce industry, and highlighted the flat or declining demand in Europe and other mature markets for many major fresh produce lines, together with the increasing technical, environmental and social demands of key customers. This contrasted with overall sense of huge optimism, ambition and opportunity in India, both as a destination for global produce, but increasingly also as a supplier for products such as mangoes, grapes and exotic vegetables.

Of course, India has its own set of challenges too, including policy and legal constraints in domestic horticulture marketing, supply chain deficiencies in internal distribution as well as the age of Indian orchards and cultivars in production. The role of the fast-developing modern retail sector in India was also discussed, both in terms of the investment in supply chain systems, but also training needs to ensure these are followed all the way through to point of sale.

The organisations getting it right in India find ways to work within these constraints and challenges, taking a long term view and demonstrate long term commitment to the market. They devote time and effort to build relationships, and invest in understanding the market, but also accept they will learn important lessons along the way. It is clear that the Indian market presents a huge opportunity but only those with a clear view of how the market operates at the moment and how it will work in the future will be in a position to take advantage of this. A well defined and researched business plan is needed in India just as it is anywhere else and a fragmented and fast changing market environment is no reason to avoid undertaking this task. In fact, it makes it even more important to understand what is happening in India.

Rebecca Lewis - Senior Consultant

Is a renewable energy plant still a good investment for farmers?

Thu, 10 May 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Renewable energies have been high on the agenda for many farmers and landowners for the last 18 months with a huge interest in the potential returns on investment. This was fuelled by the Government’s commitment to renewable energy, and an aim to provide cost-effective energy to meet 90% of the commitment under the 2020 Renewable Energy Directive.

Up to the end of December 2011, 96% of installations were Solar Photovoltaic (SPV). This was far more than predicted and is simply making the current Feed-in Tariff scheme (FiTs) unaffordable. In response, the Government published consultation documents in late 2011 and early 2012 which will see reductions in FiTs with the objective of reducing the tariffs for new installations to a more affordable level with the aim that they apply to all installations from the autumn 2012.

Under the proposals the FiT will be reduced and for SPV will be halved, the wind payment has only been cut marginally while for Anaerobic Digestion (AD) there is no change. Changing the FiT means that farmers must carefully re-assess their investment plans to assess the payback period and the likely return once capital has been repaid.

Farmers who are keen to commit to making a decision should finalise their plans as soon as possible and get on with the investment to ensure that the FiTs now in place apply to their scheme. There is no guarantee that they will not be reviewed again in the future, but the good news is that the Government consultation sends a clear message that it intends to support the uptake of small-medium scale renewables for the foreseeable future.

Farmers who are interested in renewable schemes should seek advice to consider the best options for your farm/location and investigate the whole package carefully such as ROI, payback, operation/maintenance costs, contracts, and finance requirements.

Tom Gill – Senior Environmental Consultant

Efficiency of production and costs

Thu, 03 May 2012 00:00:00 +0100

The recent news regarding the large drops in milk price is sobering but I guess partly expected when looking at how commodity prices have behaved.

It is again more important to look at the efficiency of production and costs - these are the elements where we can have control. Making better use of forage is one that immediately springs to mind.

As consultants we will have to go back to what we learnt when the milk prices were significantly lower than current levels to help our clients get through the difficult months ahead.

Emma Thompson – Senior Consultant

Wage Year Ends

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 00:00:00 +0100

The Farm Business Secretary team are not only busy preparing for spring year end completion but also finalising and submitting wage year ends for the end of the tax year.

The team are busy checking that staff have been paid the amount calculated and the HMRC have been paid the correct amount.

The 19th May is an important date for the diaries as any outstanding amounts need to be paid to HMRC by this date. Also, a P60 for all staff must be completed and received by staff and P35s must be submitted on line to HMRC by this date.

Kate Pullen - FBA Operations Manager

A Need for Challenges

Thu, 19 Apr 2012 00:00:00 +0100

In my capacity of MD I have just had a farmer complain that one of our consultants is challenging their business too much. It is critical that we as consultants challenge our clients, there are too many consultancies that are not passionate enough about ensuring their clients progress.

David Cooke - Director and Acting Managing Director

Lessons from India

Thu, 12 Apr 2012 00:00:00 +0100

When demand exceeds output, and that demand is growing day by day it equates to a very interesting market.

I've recently come back from a busy week in India and witnessed firsthand a snap-shot of a very impressive emerging dairy industry. There is drive, ambition and enthusiasm from all sectors of the industry, from the farmers to the milk processors all with a thirst for knowledge and improvement.

Genus are starting to make great progress and have exciting plans to develop this market, Promar are assisting with technical support. The ‘bring home message’ to farmers in the UK is don't be complacent - India may build its industry and compete with us in the future.

Russell Needham – National Sales Manager

Heifers...the forgotten enterprise

Thu, 05 Apr 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Heifers are often the forgotten enterprise. Based on average figures farmers can make an additional £20,000 from managing heifers better.

I have just visited a farm and seen a great bunch of 56 in calf heifers that will calve in the autumn to support a 180 cow herd. This guy is planning on keeping all the heifers and sell older cows in calf to maximise value, a great example of what good heifer rearing can do.

It's about time that farmers took more interest in their heifer enterprises!

David Cooke - Director and Acting Managing Director

National Herdsman�s Conference

Thu, 29 Mar 2012 00:00:00 +0100

It’s that time of year again where we are busy preparing for the 2nd National Herdsman’s Conference, which we are again the major sponsors. It is the only conference organised on a national scale for Herdsmen and dairy farm workers. This year’s theme ‘Train to Gain’ makes the conference highly relevant for anyone working on a dairy farm - from calf rearer to herd manager.

It is a great opportunity to mix with like minded people from all over the country and listen to some great speakers on a whole variety of subjects, from once a day milking versus four times a day milking, to a look into the control of Johnes disease.

It was a very successful event last year with a great turnout, and places are being booked up fast this year so if it sounds like an event that would interest you follow this link to book your place http://www.nationalherdsmansconference.com/

Danni Cooke - Regional Consultant for the South

Promar's involvement with the Prince's Rural Action Programme

Thu, 22 Mar 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Promar International has been invited to work with The Prince's Rural Action Programme at Business in the Community to deliver a series of training courses to around 90 farmers in 5 key dairy farming locations across the UK.

Work has started on this pilot project already. Our inputs are due to begin in April. There has been a lot of planning work undertaken to get this far.

The project has been remarkable to date in many ways, in that it has seen all the leading processors, other stakeholders such as DairyCo, Dairy UK, the NFU and consultants such as ourselves and Kite working together to deliver a series of high quality training courses addressing both commercial and technical issues that impact on dairy farmers.

This high level of co operation is almost unique in the UK dairy sector and demonstrates the commitment that exists between us to help create a vibrant and sustainable dairy industry in the UK – from which we would all benefit – not least the farmers themselves.

John Giles – Divisional Director

March year ends approach

Thu, 15 Mar 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Keeping on top of the farm paperwork is critical and over the last few weeks I have been working with my clients to get everything up to date for their March year end accounts - most of my clients have a March year end.

By making sure that all of the information required for the valuation, bank balances, HP’s and any outstanding queries are resolved now, makes the year end visit much easier for all involved.

Visiting clients often provides the stimulus and discipline for them to get things prepared. My clients really appreciate me coming and helping them get more organised, which is a good thing because I enjoy it too.

Louisa Sercombe - Farm Business Secretary Manager

Antibiotic use on farm animals

Thu, 08 Mar 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I recently attended the British Cattle Veterinary Association Winter Meeting.

One key area of discussion was the use of medicines on farm. The fear was that people can perceive that antibiotic use on farm animals can lead to resistant strains of bacteria which then migrate into the human population. There is little evidence for this, but nevertheless that is the perception. As a result EU officials are under pressure to legislate with the aim to reduce antibiotic use on farm.

Some countries have already started making pre-emptive changes to their policies. The Dutch for instance have pledged a reduction of 20% between Dec 2010 - 2011 and a reduction of 50% by 2013. It also plans to name and shame "Red Zone" farmers who exceeded a specific level of antibiotic use. In Denmark, the government has separated vets from the sale of antibiotics.

It is hoped that the UK takes a more pragmatic research based approach to this issue. Whichever way you look at it though, future farm livestock systems will need to look increasingly at preventing rather than curing infections in the future.

Richard Hooson – Milking Systems Business Manager

Looking at the past to better understand the future

Thu, 01 Mar 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I was at the Fruit Logistica trade show the other week in Berlin where we met a whole range of clients and contacts over the 3 days. One organisation we met up with has been a client for a number of years, but now has a new Chairman - who we met for the first time.

He promptly told me that he already knew our company very well – he had commissioned Produce Studies (which is now the agri food arm of Promar International) as far back as the late 1970s for a feasibility study for the development of a producer marketing group in the Midlands.

This project would have been funded by an organisation called the Central Council for Agricultural and Horticultural co-operation which then become Food from Britain (FFB). FFB was disbanded a few years ago of course, but its remit had by then changed to promote UK food exports. EFFP was then created specifically after the Curry Commission with a similar role to promote co operation in the supply chain.

What struck me was the fact that these things still seem to go round in a circle. Maybe some of the challenges from 40 or so years ago are still not that different to those we find today – although in a very different market environment and industry context. We should never underestimate the importance of understanding the heritage and legacy of where we have come from as a business - although knowing where we are going to in the future is pretty important too!

John Giles – Divisional Director

Challenging Clients to make Positive Changes

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

All of Promar’s consultancy staff met up for a national training session last week, the theme being ‘Challenge our clients to make positive changes’.

It is critical that as a consultancy organisation we encourage farmers to make changes and don’t just tell them what they want to hear.

I am amazed by the high level of positive feedback from Promar staff and our clients that are already feeling the benefits to our proactive consultancy approach by challenging businesses to make changes.

David Cooke - Director and Acting Managing Director

The Dairy Management Academy

Thu, 16 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I have spent most of the past couple of weeks making the final arrangements for the next Dairy Management Academy (DMA) course which is due to begin at the end of this month.

We had the first intake into the DMA last April and so far the trainee herd managers have covered a vast array of subjects during their training including:

• nutrition
• transition cow management
• fertility (including AI training)
• with trainees next set to do grassland and forage management on the upcoming course

These guys are now a year in and have done very well in their recent assessment. They have gained a lot of experience in their farm roles and also learned a lot of new skills from the DMA training, and visits to some of the leading dairy farms.

Danni Cooke - Regional Consultant for the South

A post card from two conferences � Manchester and Reading

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Recently I have been involved in two separate, and on the face of it very different conferences. Firstly, I spoke at the British Herb Trade Growers Association then chaired the Reading University Agricultural Club’s 46th Annual Conference.

Both were good events yet, as often the case, a number of key themes emerged highlighting that while every sector of the agri food industry has their own nuances and individual challenges, they often have more in common than they might initially think.

Both events addressed now familiar themes including – increasing global demand, rising input prices, the challenge of climate change, volatility in the market per se, the need for better supply chains, environmental challenges and opportunities, the requirement for a supportive enabling and policy environment, and the need for a more equitable supply chain relationship between producers and end user customers.

Listing all the challenges is of course often the easy part of all this. Coming up with the answers to what businesses need to do is more problematical, but I think all the following points make good sense:

• Farm a bit bigger, buy a bit sharper, sell a bit higher
• Consolidate – or be consolidated
• Carry out ongoing full value chain analysis – from seed to shelf
• Use every bit of technology available to reduce costs, remove waste and boost yields
• Benchmark against the best of class
• Innovate - products, services and business systems
• Be the leader on consumer and category knowledge
• Look for still better supply chain co operation
• Promote and take advantage of PR opportunities – especially as there is often a need to attract younger consumers
• Invest in R & D and knowledge transfer

The above points all involve much more than is just given here but as a client said to me recently “John, you are making this sound all very simple” – to which I replied: “I can make it sound really difficult if you want me to!”

Next stop - the major international 3 day trade show in Berlin for the fresh produce sector, Fruit Logistica.....

John Giles - Divisional Director

Grazing Planning

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

I’ve spent a lot of time this week with clients discussing grassland management for the coming grazing season. In particular trying to plan grazing systems, silage requirements, and areas to be taken for silage and fertiliser policy.

Two clients are setting up paddocks for the first time this season so have been planning their size and layout plus their water availability and field access points.

I’ve had much success with paddock grazing recently with one client increasing his yield from grazed grass by 190% (1,600 litres) in two seasons.

Jonathan Hill - Regional Consultant North

Welcome to the Promar blog

Thu, 26 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

The Promar blog is designed to provide topics and views from around the country, contributed to by the management team. Between us we visit a wide range of clients and rural businesses and attend many conferences which should make this blog diverse and interesting!

One of our main focuses is to ensure that our clients are profitable. I was surprised by a few comments recently relating to an article one of our staff contributed to, regarding a profitable small producer. Dairy production can still be profitable - I wish people would not keep talking the industry down.

The argument is often “We don’t want the processor to know” I think we are being slightly naive if we think they cannot work out for themselves the profitability and costs of milk production.

David Cooke - Director and Acting Managing Director